Turov on Timing

This is 3:35 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, August 13, 2010.

TOT daily traders are 400% short at an average price of 1083.925.  The SPX is currently about 2 points below there.

Candidly, I’m surprised the market has held up as well as it has.  However, a profit is a profit.  Lower your stop to an SPX 1083.92 breakeven.  If not stopped out, take your profit on the close and go into the weekend flat.  And with that in mind…

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is an 11:25 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, August 13, 2010.

Sorry I’m a few minutes late with this update.

TOT daily traders are 400% short at an average price of 1083.925.  The SPX is currently about 3 points below there, a good start.  The odds are so high that the market is going lower that I’m going to recommend a disaster only protective buy stop well above the market, specifically at SPX 1103.  However, if the market starts to put in a good rally – which I don’t expect – I will update with additional commentary.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 3:50 with an overnight recommendation – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Friday, August 13, 2010. 

The SPX declined 5.86 points yesterday to close at 1083.61.  TOT daily traders closed out a 200% long position on the opening and spent the balance of the day on the sidelines.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11860.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 624.68 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 18.99 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended.  I am uncertain whether the previous high will be tested or not – in either event, prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.   . 

Expect to see strength in the early going but a selloff (possibly significant) later in the day.  TOT daily traders are advised to stand aside until 10:00.  At that time, go 100% short at the market.  At 10:15, do it again, and again at 10:30 and again at 10:45, establishing by that time a 400% short position.  I’ll update at 11:00 with a stop recommendation.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 11:00 a.m. – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

 
This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, August 12, 2010. 

The SPX declined 31.59 points yesterday to close at 1089.47.  TOT daily traders went 200% short on the opening and covered the short on the close.  We then went 200% long on the close and have held that position overnight and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11876.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 630.54 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 18.84 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended.  I am uncertain whether the previous high will be tested or not – in either event, prior to another nasty crash.

The technical damage done to the market yesterday was massive.  Overnight analysis shows it was more severe than I had preliminarily anticipated yesterday afternoon.  As a result, the Intermediate Term Model has downticked from bullish to bearish.  Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is now bearish.   . 

I had anticipated that the daily model would be modestly bullish today.  It is not.  Its component indicators are as sloppy as a Black Widow’s web. (For those not into arachnids, they make really, really sloppy webs.)  I would want to stand aside today.  Unfortunately, TOT daily traders went 200% long on the close, after covering the short position.  Sell that position at the market and move to the sidelines.  This market is dangerous, but it’s not yet clear in which direction.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 3:50 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 11, 2010. 

TOT daily traders went 200% short on the opening today and are still short.

Preliminarily, and ignoring unknown overnight news, I expect the market to gap open higher tomorrow morning, work its way a bit higher yet, and then sell off again.  Scalping the expected dead cat bounce is worth it.

TOT daily traders are advised to cover their short on the close today and simultaneously go 200% long, holding that position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 10 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 11, 2010. 

The SPX declined 6.73 points yesterday to close at 1121.06.  TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11821.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 662.13 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 17.85 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. 

The daily model is bearish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1122 limit or SPX 1118 stop, whichever comes first.  If you go short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 1133.  If not stopped out, I’ll update again at 3:50.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 3:50 – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, August 10, 2010. 

The SPX advanced 6.15 points yesterday to close at 1127.79.  TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1120.83 on Friday and took our loss on the close yesterday.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11821.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 668.86 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 17.67 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. 

The FOMC announcement will come at 2:15 this afternoon and will clearly be the highlight of the day.  More often than not, the market advances on FOMC announcement days – but when it doesn’t, it often sells off badly.  Further complicating matters is that there is often a great deal of volatility immediately following the announcement, making the probability of whipsaws higher than usual.  And if that weren’t problematic enough, the SPX-based daily model is bearish today, but my NASDAQ model is bullish.  Without knowing the FOMC details, my best guess is for strength in the morning, followed by weakness in the afternoon.  But the FOMC will trump all else.  Stand aside and spare the Maalox.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 3:40 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Monday, August 9, 2010. 

Our daily trader position is faring poorly, and preliminarily, it doesn’t look to get better in the morning.  TOT daily traders are 400% short.  Lower your stop to a very tight SPX 1129.40.  If not stopped out, cover the position on the close and go ovrnight flat.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 10 hours.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 9, 2010. 

The SPX declined 4.17 points Friday to close at 1121.64.  TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1120.83 and have held the position over the weekend and into today.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11846.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 662.71 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 17.88 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. 

The daily model is bearish today.  TOT daily traders come into today’s session 400% short.  Hold the position, and use a stop at SPX 1133.35.  If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 3:47 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, August 6, 2010. 

TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1120.83.  Carry the position over the weekend and into Monday.  I expect Monday to see the market sell off – and then stay down.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again tomorrow, Saturday, with the August monthly Turov on Timing.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 10:18 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, August 6, 2010. 

TOT daily traders went 400% short a few moments ago, basis SPX 1120.83.  Use a protective buy stop on the position at SPX 1132.

I will update again later today.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 10:13 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, August 6, 2010. 

TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% short at the market.  We’ll use the price 2 minutes after transmission as our “official” price.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again within 15 minutes.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

 
This is Turov on Timing for Friday, August 6, 2010. 

The SPX declined 1.43 points yesterday to close at 1125.81.  TOT daily traders stayed on the sidelines for the session and missed nothing.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11849.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 666.88 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 17.77 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. 

Candidly, it doesn’t matter what the model is today.  The market will be driven by the Jobs Report, expected out pre-opening.  And then, what will be important is how the market reacts to the news.

Expect a gap, up or down, depending on whether the report is better or worse than expected, and then expect some volatility.  If I can see a pattern to help guide us through the rest of the day, I’ll report it to you.  But in any event, I will update at some time during the day.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again during today’s session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, August 5, 2010. 

The SPX advanced 6.78 points yesterday to close at 1127.24, reversing Tuesday’s loss of about the same amount.  While the daily model was correctly bullish, TOT daily traders stayed on the sidelines for the session.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11849.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 668.31 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 17.73 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. 

Today, we have an interesting situation.  My NASDAQ model is quite bullish, but my S&P daily model is modestly bearish.  And while it’s possible that NASDAQ will advance while SPX will decline, it’s unlikely.  My best educated guess: the NASDAQ model will “win” and the market will advance.  But since this service is SPX based, we will stand aside.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Wednesday, August 4, 2010. 

The SPX declined 5.39 points yesterday to close at 1120.46.  TOT daily traders went 200% short on the opening and took profits on the close. 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11849.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 661.53 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 17.91 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. 

The daily model is ever so slightly bullish today, but risk is somewhat high.  While I can’t argue with anyone who wants to go long, we will officially stand aside today.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 3:45 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Tuesday, August 3, 2010. 

TOT daily traders went 200% short on the opening.  Take your profit on the close and go overnight flat. 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at the regular overnight time.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, August 3, 2010. 

The SPX advanced 24.25 points yesterday to close at 1125.85.  TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and took profits at SPX 1118.  We were obviously on the right side of the market, but I did not think the market would have as easy a time breaching SPX 1120 as it did. 

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11839.60 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 666.92 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 17.75 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  I do not expect fireworks this month, but we should advance.

The daily model is bearish today, and we should see a partial reversal of yesterday’s gain.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at the market.  Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 3:45 if still short; otherwise at the regular overnight time.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 2, 2010. 

The SPX advanced .07 point Friday to close at 1101.60.  TOT daily traders…  Well, the week’s over…  And paraphrasing Ed McMahon, “Here’s……..August.”

I’m happy to say all Turov Investment Group Inc. Rydex managed accounts did very well during July.  For the month of July (not annualized):

Program A Up 8.53%, after fees.
Program B Up 4.74%, after fees.
Program D     Up 2.84%, fee charged only quarterly.

The reason A did the best is that our best profits were on the long side, and we did have short side losses.  Program A never goes short.

Because my secretary’s on vacation, formal Rydex reports to clients will not be sent until late next week.

The monthly Turov on Timing will be distributed after the close this coming Friday.  So if you generally walk away from the market then, you might want to look for it Saturday.

Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11808.19 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 642.67 points in the index itself over the same period.  That’s a ratio of 18.37 to  one. 

The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then).  I believe that the 2009-2010 cyclical bull market has probably ended, but I believe the prior high may yet be tested – prior to another nasty crash.

The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.  I do not expect fireworks this month, but we should advance.

The daily model is bullish today.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1102 stop.  If you go long, use a sell stop on the position at SPX 1088.  On the upside, if the SPX rallies to 1118, take your profit.

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 3:45 if still long; otherwise at the regular overnight time.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 3:45 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, July 30, 2010. 

TOT daily traders are 300% short from SPX 1102.  If not previously stopped out, cover your short on the close and go into the weekend flat.

Have a great weekend, thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Monday’s trading session.

Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2010 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved.  Turov on Timing is for personal use only.  All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email.  Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited.  No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.

This is a 10:50 intraday update of Turov on Timing for Friday, July 30, 2010. 

Well, Clatu, Barada, Nicto, y’all.  The aliens have landed.  They tried to land in Phoenix, but Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio refused to let them land.  So they landed on Wall Street instead.

The market HAS reversed to positive by 10:45 – and that provides a good short selling opportunity.  TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1102 stop or at SPX 1105 limit, whichever comes first.  If you go short, use a 1% buy stop on the position. 

Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again at 3:50 today.