Turov on Timing Monthly Issues

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1993 Vol.1 N.2 November 1, 1993

Questions Answered

	On your daily model, when you recommend taking a leveraged position, such as 400% long, is it because you are very bullish or is it because you feel the risk is low?
	In the last issue of Turov on Timing you implied that volume was not a significant part of your analysis. Yet on your October 4 hotline, you described some volume criteria as part of determining whether a model would turn a signal. What's the story?
	In relation to that same hotline recommendation, you set your parameters in terms of "NYSE volume excluding the five most active stocks." I've never seen this done before? What is your purpose in doing so?
	I went long this morning on your bullish recommendation, and now I have a big profit. What should I do now?
	When you calculate your gains or losses for a given recommendation, what prices do you use?

1993 Vol.1 N.3 November 22, 1993

Questions Answered

	Your hotline recommendations are sometimes complicated, and I have a hard time following them. What can I do?
	Why don't you offer a fax service?
	I'm interested in generating substantial returns on relatively few trades. I'm seeking only those moves which have a high profitability of being sustained enough to realize profits using out of money puts or calls. I am aware that such moves occur rarely, and I am aware that trading in options is inherently dangerous. How, if at all, can Turov on Timing assist my search for high probability sustained movements in out of the money options (the epitome of a wasting asset) no matter how long I have to wait between trades?
	Has the short term or the long term model been the most profitable?
	In view of your background in options, why don't you make option recommendations?
	Is there any possibility you could give some idea of the next day's market action prior to the current day's close?
	I like to call the hotline every day, but one Friday I was traveling, and I forgot. So I called on Saturday to hear what you said the day before. But instead of hearing Friday's message, I heard a special weekend report. I thought you only recorded messages on business days. What's the story?

1993 Vol.1 N.4 December 13, 1993

Question Answered

I have a multi-part question about your Daily Model Recommendation Performance track record (ed., see page 4), and what if might mean to me as a futures trader: (a) (Updated for the current issue), you have a gain of 24.53 points over a period of ten weeks. If I annualize that over a 52 week period, it would result in a gain of 127.556 points. (Inasmuch as each point equals $500), that would be a total gain of $63,788 over the course of a year. Since you state the maximum leverage you use is 500% (i.e., five contracts), and since the current margin requirement is $9,000 per contract making the total money needed to trade five contracts $45,000, am I correct that trading futures on your recommendations give me a 142% annualized return? (b)How likely is that projected annualization to be achieved? (c)Have you ever traded futures for your own account based on your short term trading model, and how well did you do? (d)Are you currently trading futures? (e)Just how risky would it be to follow such a plan?

1994 Vol.2 N.1 January 3, 1994

Questions Answered

	I don't understand why you assign neutral ratings to your models. If you're as good as you want me to believe you are, why not just state your case - bullish or bearish - and not hide behind a cowardly "neutral"?
	I went short on the Japanese Yen at .93 after reading your Nov. 1 issue. Now the Yen is .89. Should I continue to hold?
	If I cut through all the crap the government requires you to say when you report your track record, and if I understand all of what you call "caveats" in the answer to the first question from the last issue, it seems to me that the 50.02 point gain you reported for the quarter equals a 222% annual gain, based on minimum margin. Is that accurate? [Ed. Note: reader's question updated for current figures]

1994 Vol.2 N.2 January 24, 1994

Article

(Hopefully) Final Commentary on S&P Cash Versus Futures Issue

Questions Answered

	Is there any additional purpose to the "What You Might Have Missed" section?
	On your January 6 hotline, you stated that your program ignores all early morning government business and economic releases when making its daily trading recommendations. Why?"
	You seem to use the word "risk" in a different way than other hotline services. Is my perception accurate?

1994 Vol.2 N.3 February 14, 1994

Article

Smart Idea From Smart Money - Discusses ideas in Smart Money of why market hasn't corrected, and may not decline much this year.

1994 Vol.2 N.4 March 7, 1994

Questions Answered

	How is it possible to sell short a mutual fund?
	I sometimes have trouble conceptualizing the positioning of your stop and limit numbers. Are they the limits of a trend channel, or support and resistance, or what?

1994 Vol.2 N.5 April 4, 1994

Article

For Non-"Black Box" Traders - Real Money Results - Discusses Dan's five week experiment, trading futures contracts using his daily trader recommendations only as "very valued background input" and consequently doubling his initial investment.

Question Answered

The 105.41 point gain you reported for your first half year equals a 187% annualized rate of return, based on minimum margin. Is that accurate?

1994 Vol.2 N.6 May 2, 1994

Articles

Getting Reliable Information - Discusses a "curious development" where on the last two trading days of the month, the June Standard and Poor's futures traded most of the time at a discount which should have triggered "massive sell programs", and a large response to buy, but didn't, and the ignorance of many major brokerage firms to this development.

	Forgotten - But Not For Long - Discusses fear of confrontation in North Korea.
	Homage - Discusses Dan's friendship with Earl Zazove and his respects to Louise Zazove who passed away two weeks before this issue was published.

1994 Vol.2 N.7 June 6, 1994

Questions Answered

	I am disappointed with your hotline. When I used to call, it seemed that I lost money as often as I gained. Yet in your monthly newsletters, you're always crowing about how great you're doing... send me...your excuse.
	You reported in April how using your daily trader recommendations in a non-black box manner, you turned $11,200 into $22,740 in five weeks. How are you doing now?
	You've started having interim updates on your hotline with changes in the long-term and short-term recommendations. I'm a mutual fund switcher and don't want to have to call more than once a day to know what your position is. What's the story?
	I'm an inexperienced trader. Most of your commentary is very sophisticated. What advice can you give me?
	On your hotline, you sometimes say risk is very high, but then you recommend a 400% or 500% position. Why don't you just reduce the size of your recommendation when risk is so high?
	I'm a short term trader who sometimes wants to exit or enter a position before then 9:30 opening of NYSE trading and/or before the release of 8:30 gov't statistics. Is there any way I can do this?

1994 Vol.2 N.8 July 5, 1994

Article

Dow Could Gain Well Over 1000 Points From Its 1994 Low To Its 1995 High - Discusses the four-year "Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle".

1994-09 Vol.2 N.9 August 1, 1994

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses political market commentary; why if Colin Powell announces his candidacy for presidency, "you will see one of the biggest bull markets in your lifetime".

1994 Vol.2 N.10 September 6, 1994

Article

A Down 1995? Historically Unlikely - Discusses why it is historically unlikely that 1995 would be down.

Questions Answered

	How closely related are your timing models to conventional stock market technical analysis?
	How would your daily trader performance look if I limited each trade to 100% [i.e. did not use leverage]?
	You have indicated several times recently that the market could well fall off a cliff, but it has not done so. My rule is when the market won't go down when it "should," it is likely to go up, especially now when the month end rally is usual. Why do you continue to buck the trend?
	Are your models self-correcting?
	If I wanted to try out the system, is there a way you or my broker could take the directions without my being an intermediary?
	Let me compliment you on the clarity and precision of your commentary. Do you have a form that we could use to record the message to make it easier (to follow)?

1994 Vol.2 N.11 October 3, 1994

Article

	First Year Commentary - Evaluation of Turov on Timing's performance in its first year.
	Letter From A Reader - note from Colin Powell in response to August's Turov on Timing.

1994 Vol.2 N.12 November 7, 1994

Questions Answered

	On one of your hotlines a few weeks back, you described two changes in your daily model. Could you repeat what those changes are, please?
	The market seems to be more affected now by news developments than in the past. Yet you seem to ignore the impact of anticipated government economic releases when evaluating your daily predictions. Why?

1994 Vol.2 N.13 December 5, 1994

Article

Decembers in Years Following Weak Novembers - When the period beginning with the end of October and ending with the first Friday in December is down (as it was this year), it is an indication that the bears are in control. "Will they maintain it?"

1995 Vol.3 N.1 January 3, 1995

Articles

Januarys and the Year After Weak Novembers - Discusses what happens following "weak Novembers" in the new year.

Questions Answered

Sell stops should be placed below round numbers, and buy stops should be placed above round numbers, since orders rend to accumulate and on the books at round numbers. What is your response?

I've noticed that your daily recommendations, overall, have done far better when the market's declined than when it's advanced. So, even though I'm a long-term investor, I'm considering setting up a separate index futures account to follow your daily recommendations. That way, since you seem to break even when the market advances, and you seem to make money when it declines, the futures portfolio will hedge my long term investment account if the market declines, but won't hurt me if the market advances. Does this make sense?

1995 Vol.3 N.2 February 6, 1995

Article

Historically, The Odds Favor More Advances - Discusses how the historical evidence for a continued advance is strong, but less compelling than was the case for a strong December and January.

Question Answered

You had a complicated explanation on your hotline of how there could be selling pressure on a day when the market advances. Please repeat your commentary in writing so I can review it.

1995 Vol.3 N.3 March 6, 1995

Article

Affirmative Action and the Stock Market - Discusses the abuse of Affirmative Action by minorities who feel that their abuse of Affirmative Action initiatives is not wrong, but that they are "entitled" to them. Also discusses the effects on the stock market if the Republican or Democratic party were to run the White House.

Question Answered

Why have you cut back intraday commentaries so drastically?

1995 Vol.3 N.4 April 3, 1995

Article

First half of April Outperforms Second Half - Discusses how the stock market performs around tax time.

Questions Answered

	Concerning February 27: I did not go short on the opening because of the lower opening [in futures] but did go long after your 12:45 call. I was stopped out on 3 contracts, down 2 points as per your instructions. Your hotline today indicated a cumulative gain of 251.58 vs. 252.54 yesterday, a minor loss. Did I do something wrong, or is your arithmetic off?
	I must compliment you on the clarity of your recommendations and on the accuracy of your performance reporting. But since my broker won't take responsibility for following your SPX stops, I base my stops on the same point change from my futures execution. So, instead of having a loss on the day like you did, I had a good profit. I think you would do better if you used the futures instead.

1995-05 Vol.3 N.5 May 1, 1995

Articles

	Market Commentary #1 - Discusses mid-year performance following advancing New Year to April periods.
	Market Commentary #2 - Discusses a rare event when the first of the month has five advancing sessions (Monday through Friday)

1995 Vol.3 N.6 June 5, 1995

Article

Worried About Low Dividend Yields? - Discusses how many investors have been avoiding stocks in recent months because of the low level of dividend yields and tries to explain why stock yields have been declining.

Questions Answered

	Your hotline recommendations frequently are worded with a "whichever comes first" option. Since these "one or the other" bands [known in futures trading as "OCO", meaning one cancels the other] usually has one side close to the prior day's close, wouldn't your performance improve by simplifying such recommendations to straight market orders?
	Your last month's commentary was interesting, and I did some additional research on the subject. What I discovered was that when the early part of the year was very strong, such as this year has been, the balance of the year has been disappointing.

1995 Vol.3 N.7 July 10, 1995

Article

The Secret Behind the TOT System - Discusses how Dan uses meditation as a tool to improve his intuition and better stock market performance.

1995-08 Vol.3 N.8 August 7, 1995

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses a different interpretation of the mid-year performance following advancing New Year to April periods.

1995 Vol.3 N.9 September 5, 1995

Questions Answered

	What should I do when there's a problem with the Teleshare hotline number?
	I would like to get a better understanding of the background. Nueral network? How often do you adjust? Other technologies? What are the results for other time periods?
	I have been disturbed this year by all the violence and anger and hatred I see in America, from the Oklahoma bombing to the racism of the O.J. Simpson trial. Do you think that this trend towards mankind's baser instincts will somehow affect the psychology of the stock market, and if so, how?
	This market has been held up by the strength in a single group, the technology stocks. Don't you feel that the recent heavy profit taking in Intel, Microsoft, IBM, etc. signals the end of this bull market?

1995-10 Vol.3 N.10 October 2, 1995

Article

Evaluation of Daily Model Performance - Discusses the complete track record of TOT daily recommendations since inception.

1995 Vol.3 N.11 November 6, 1995

Article

Coming Capital Gains Tax Cut May Not Be Good News - Discusses how a capital gains tax cut has, in the past, and, may, in the future, adversely affect the stock market.

Question Answered

I just re-read the Premier Issue [October 1, 1993] of TOT, including your comments about the differences between a theoretical track record and actual hands-on account management. I was wondering if you have any additional thoughts on the subject, now that you've been publishing for over two years.

1995 Vol.3 N.12 December 4, 1995

Questions Answered

I congratulate you on a job well done today (November 8). Your recommended 500% long position hit the bull's eye, as the DJIA and S&P rose to record levels. I wish that you would apply your short term model to catch 2- to 4-week intermediate swings in the market. As good as your daily model is, don't you feel it would be further enhanced by incorporating the pre-opening action of the bond market, including its response to any 8:30AM economic reports?

I would appreciate your comment on using your daily recommendations for mutual fund switching. Ideas on buying Nova and Ursa thirty minutes before market closes? When your daily reading is bullish, should I buy Nova on the close, when bearish buy Ursa, when neutral move to cash, the following day?

1996 Vol.4 N.1 January 8, 1996

Article

Life Insurance at Zero Cost (Or Even Less) - Discusses a strategy for getting life insurance at zero effective cost, or less.

Question Answered

On your January 2 hotline message you said that almost all of December 29's market advance "took place near the close as institutional investors placed market on close buy orders to increase the value of their existing portfolios." How do market on close orders do anything important for a huge mutual fund's portfolio value?

1996 Vol.4 N.2 February 5, 1996

Article

Mercurial Mondays - Discusses a theory as to why the long-established trend of Monday being the weakest acting day of the week has been reversed.

Question Answered

Sometimes its confusing to know whom to believe. Two advisors contradict each other. Both arguments make sense, but both can't be right. How do you handle this dilemma when analyzing the market?

1996 Vol.4 N.3 March 5, 1996

Question Answered

How does your system handle gap openings? Am I supposed to go along with your recommendation? Do gap openings increase the risk of the trade?

1996 Vol.4 N.4 April 1, 1996

Question Answered

During (late March), there were five consecutive days of daily model bullish readings. yet the market went nowhere. Is that a negative indicator in and of itself?

1996 Vol.4 N.5 May 6, 1996

Questions Answered

	You sometimes advise buying or selling "on the close." Does that mean 4:00 or 4:15?
	[I recently received a FAX from The Hirsch Organization office, containing a copy of a recent brokerage house's technical market commentary, along with a note, asking me], "Do you want to continue receiving these?"
	On May 2, I tried for hours to reach the 800 number but constantly got a busy. What happened? What can I do?

1996 Vol.4 N.6 June 3, 1996

Article

On the Other Hand... No Losses in Last 7 Months of Election Years - Discusses a trend in which election years are usually "up years", and why.

1996 Vol.4 N.7 July 8, 1996

Article

A Summer Rally? - Disproves the idea that the market has its biggest rallies during the summer.

1996-08 Vol.4 N.8 August 5, 1996

Article

Market Commentary – comments and excerpts from Larry McMillan’s lawst issue of The Option Strategist.

1996-09 Vol.4 N.9 September 6, 1996

Articles

	Market Commentary #1 - Discusses how most managers will try to minimize risk and not maximize profits.
	Market Commentary #2 - Discusses what Dan meant by saying that "the strength in the Dow is a smokescreen."

1996 Vol.4 N.10 October 7, 1996

Article

FREE Management Service Offered - Discusses an opportunity for one subscriber to have his/her account managed by Dan for free, with no management fee of any kind.

1996-11 Vol.4 N.11 November 4, 1996

Article

* Market Commentary - Discusses some excerpts from the new 1997 Stock Traders Almanac.

1996-12 Vol.4 N.12 December 2, 1996

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses what a stock stands for, in a time when it is easy to lose sight of what a "stock" really is.

1997 Vol.5 N.1 January 6, 1997

Article

The Logic of Market Logic - A reprint from the December 6 issue of Market Logic which discusses the Super Bull Runs of past century.

1997 Vol.5 N.2 February 3, 1997

Article

More Mercurial Monday Musings - Discusses the reversal of a trend where Mondays were the strongest day of the week back to the weakest day of the week.

Question Answered

Right after [Federal Reserve Chairman...] Greenspan's speech, you had a lengthy speech of your own on the hotline. It was interesting, and I'd like to listen to your comments again. Could you [reprint them]?

1997 Vol.5 N.3 March 3, 1997

Article

Profiting on St. Patrick's Day - It's More Than Luck! - Discusses how the market performs on St. Patrick's Day.

1997 Vol.5 N.4 April 7, 1997

Article

Is Market Timing Necessary Anymore? "When a stock is cheap, buy it. When it goes up, sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it!" - Discusses annuities which allow you to achieve the joy of stock market profits and avoid the agony of losses.

Questions Answered

	Instead of annuitizing it at the end of seven years, can I take it as a lump sum?
	How can I get immediate cash if I need it?
	Let's say the market tanks, and I want to average down, using my account value as collateral. Can I?
	That implies that if interest rates go down and the stock market goes up, I'll make more than the 46% guarantee because of the SPX bonus portion, but if interest rates go up and the stock market goes down, I'll make more than the 46% guarantee because of those higher rates. Is that correct?
	I understand that within an annuity, all gains accumulate tax free until they are withdrawn. Are there any other tax factors I should know?
	Is this the only index annuity there is? In the first table, if the market doubles from $100,000 to $200,000, I'll have a $100,000 gain on which I'll have to pay 28% taxes. That will leave me with only $172,000. Even without the sophisticated analysis of your third table, that $172,000 is exactly what I'd receive from your annuity. Why didn't you stress this?

1997 Vol.5 N.5 May 5, 1997

Questions Answered

	I found last month's index annuity discussion fascinating, and I have one question. I'm 37 years old and would like to have an idea what this annuity would do for me if I were to buy it and hold it [for 28 years] until I'm 65. As a way of projecting what the future might do I'd like to see how I would have fared had I bought this annuity 28 years ago and held it to the present. Can you do that?
	Why did you write the article on the index annuity? What's your point?
	The index annuity you discussed has only a 50% participation rate. I think I did much better buying one with an 82% participation rate. Do you agree?

1997 Vol.5 N.6 June 2, 1997

Questions Answered

	On your hotline, over the past month, you've made some frankly amazing intraday calls. Yet you steadfastly refuse to offer an intraday hotline service. Why?
	Do you consider it a failure of your daily model when the signal is neutral and then the market has a big move, either up or down?
	Is there any relationship between the election cycle and your models?

1997 Vol.5 N.7 July 7, 1997

Questions Answered

	I've really enjoyed your discussion of index annuities in [the April and May issues of] TOT. Are you aware that there's a new index annuity on the market that's even better than the one you wrote about?
	How in the world did you get involved in index annuities?
	You have not listed the name of this or any other index annuity in TOT, and when I called you, you were reluctant to part with this information. Why?

1997 Vol.5 N.8 August 4, 1997

Questions Answered

	On the hotline, when you say, "if the SPX is closing up on the day..." do you mean "if the SPX is rallying and higher than it was earlier in the day," or do you mean "if the SPX is closing higher than it closed yesterday"?
	You've put together a superb track record, and I've made a lot of money following your recommendations. But how much of your success has been solely because you sometimes have been very highly leveraged long, and this is a great bull market?

1997-09 Vol.5 N.9 September 2, 1997

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses Yale Hirsch's observations about September after an "exuberant" July.

1997-10 Vol.5 N.10 October 13, 1997

Article
* Market Commentary - Discusses robust September's and their effect on the following year.

1997-11 Vol.5 N.11 November 3, 1997

Article

Market Commentary - Dan makes two points: (1) "Conventional Wisdom" is an Oxymoron; and (2) Ignorance is Not Knowing; Stupidity is Not Admitting Ignorance.

1997 Vol.5 N.12 December 1, 1997

Questions Answered

	I was surprised that you were so bullish the Monday before Thanksgiving. Over that weekend, Yamaichi Securities went bankrupt and although Tokyo was closed, the South Korean market was down over 7% and European markets got hammered. It was pretty obvious that the US market was going to open lower. Why were you so bullish in that environment?
	I'm confused how you could switch from being so bullish at the beginning of Thanksgiving week to being so bearish at the end of the week. The market advanced, as you predicted, so why the bearskin?
	This is not really a question, but a comment. I chuckled at your comment in the last TOT, "Conventional wisdom is an oxymoron". How true. It inspired me to pull out an old issue [ed.:June 1996] of [Hirsch Organization publication] Higher Returns. I think of it every time I listen to the morons on TV who always have a glib answer to every question.

1998-01 Vol.6 N.1 January 5, 1998

Article

Market Commentary: January - Discusses the years in which January does not run neck and neck with December as the strongest month of the year.

1998 Vol.6 N.2 February 2, 1998

Article

Is Caesar as "Pure as Caesar's Wife"? - And Does it Matter to the Stock Market? - What could marital fidelity possibly have to do with gross commission production? What does that have to do with the stock market?

1998 Vol.6. N.3 March 9, 1998

Article

The Worst Investment Idea in America? - Discusses why Variable Universal Life is a dramatically inferior way to invest in mutual funds.

1998 Vol.6. N.4 April 6, 1998

Question Answered

In one of your hotline messages in December [Ed.: This is the first issue since then that we've had space for questions, but the question is equally valid now as then.] you seemed to imply that that day's short-term model reading was related to the daily model's reading. Is that implication accurate?

1998 Vol.6. N.5 May 11, 1998

Article

Is Market Timing Necessary Anymore? "When a stock is cheap, buy it. When it goes up, sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." - Discusses how one can use annuities to have profits if the stock market goes up, but have no risk if it goes down.

Questions Answered

	How can I get immediate cash if I need it?
	If the market tanks, and I want to average down, can I use my account value as collateral?
	I understand that within an annuity, all gains accumulate tax free until they are withdrawn. Are there any other tax factors I should know?
	I expect the market to triple in the next seven years [Ed.: That's equivalent to 16.99% per annum.] I'll have a $200,000 gain on which I'll pay 20% taxes. That will leave me with only $260,000. Yet if I put my money in the annuity, I would have $250,000, risklessly. Can it be that good?
	How do I know the guarantees truly are secure?
	Despite all that you've said, I still like the idea of an ILA which will lock in my gains annually. Is there any one which does so without having a cap and without the annual averaging?
	Why hasn't my stock broker ever told me about an ILA?

1998 Vol.6. N.6 June 1, 1998

Articles

	The Case for Being Really Bullish - Discusses reasons for long term bullishness.
	The Case for Being Really Bearish - Discusses reasons for long term bearishness.
	Year 2000 - Thoughts about Y2K.

1998 Vol.6. N.7 July 6, 1998

Article

Which Side Wins? - Discusses why long term bearishness will outlast long term bullishness, analyzing in conjuction Geraldine Weiss's question in June 1998's Investment Quality Trends, "Besides valuation levels, what makes you apprehensive about the stock market?" More commentary on Y2K.

1998 Vol.6. N.8&9 September 8, 1998

Article

Seasonality and Market Timing - Discusses seasonality mutual fund trading strategies.

1998 Vol.6 N.10 October 5, 1998

Question Answered

[On] Monday and Tuesday [September 21 and 22], your comments on the Clinton-Starr matter... seemed to be on one side on the first day and on the other side on the second day. [Also, I'd like to know] was the political situation somehow impacting your interpretation of the model [although] knowing you, such a possibility seems remote, certainly not conscious.

1998 Vol.6 N.11 November 2, 1998

Articles

	What if Free is too Expensive? - Discuses how the market had its second biggest advance ever on October 15 when the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates 45 minutes before the close of trading and how this could be a forecast a world wide depression.
	Potentially Prophetic Prognosticator Predicts Potent Parabolic Pattern's Passage Portends Possibly Painful Petering Picture - A reprint of a graph and commentary from Gerald Appel's October 1 issue of "Systems and Forecasts".

1998 Vol.6 N.12 December 7, 1998

Article

	No Losers in Pre-Presidential Election Years Since WWII - a reprint of an article and graph from the 1999 Stock Trader's Almanac about no down years in the third year of a presidential term.
	Classic Technical Analysis - Shows a table of DJIA returns after upward move through 200 day moving average.
	No-Brainer? Yeah, right! - Discusses November 30's Barron's "Trading Points" column titled "No Brainer: Munis Yielding as Much as Treasuries" and mathematical discrepancies in earnings reports.
	More on the Bond Market - A reason for a possible worldwide bear market.

1999 Vol.7 N.1 January 4, 1999

Article

Sin Verguenza - Discusses thoughts on the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.

Question Answered

I understand that when interest rates are low, bonds and CD's don't have much of a yield advantage over stocks, and that makes them less attractive (and stocks relatively more attractive). But is that the only reason why low interest rates are bullish for stocks?

1999 Vol.7 N.2 February 1, 1999

Article

Murky Moon- Reprints Market Logic's article "Once in a Blue Moon" with Dan's commentary on this Super Bowl Indicator.

Questions Answered

A reader comments that he/she believes that TOT is deceitful, and "venture[s] that is because if [Dan] did [use future prices], and accounting for the carrying costs of the futures and the difference in executable prices, the hotline would have no significant out-performance as is claimed every day on [Dan's] hotline."

1999-03 Vol.7 N.3 March 1, 1999

Article

A reprint of the St. Patrick's Day article introduction with more new information relevant to this coming St. Patrick's Day.

Question Answered

If I want to track futures based on our recommendations, how should I best convert your SPX based stops and limits into futures orders, especially when there are gap openings?

1999 Vol.7 N.4 April 5, 1999

Article

	Will Kosovo Kill the Bull Market? - Discusses how the situation in Yugoslavia (Kosovo) might affect the bull market.
	The Significance of Divergence - Discusses the significant of the divergence between the Standard & Poor's 500 index and the broader market over the past year.

1999 Vol.7 N.5 May 3, 1999

Article

	The Cat in the Tree - an analogy comparing the stock market to a cat in a tree.
	What's With the Daily Model? - Discusses why the model has not been faring well the last five weeks.

1999 Vol.7 N.6 June 7, 1999

Article

	Confidence - Discusses how the economy is completely based on confidence.
	Is it Getting Tougher to Beat the Market? - Discusses Peter Bernstein's analysis of why the stock market has been tougher to beat.

1999 Vol.7 N.7 July 6, 1999

Questions Answered

	What do you feel is the most important attribute a successful trader must have?
	On June 28, it seemed that your stop order was getting hit, but the closing numbers showed that the level was not reached. What happened?

1999 Vol.7 N.8 August 9, 1999

Questions Answered

	On a recent hotline you advised, "Go... 200% long at SPX 1315 stop or SPX 1285 limit, whichever comes first (and you continued, saying), by the way, the unusually wide disparity between the 1315 momentum buy point and the 1285 oscillator buy point is indicative of a market making double major directional shifts, in this case, the long term from bull to bear and the short term from bear to bull." What do you mean by the "disparity between the 1315 momentum buy point and the 1285 oscillator buy point?"
	Despite your bearishness, I want to own stocks. What groups do you like? * Considering that interest rates are more a function of inflation than any other cause, how do you see them trading?
	On a recent hotline you said, "The daily model is neutral today, but if support can hold, it will get stronger throughout the day." This seems to be contradictory to a statement you said some time ago that the daily model is only calculated based on closing prices. What gives?

1999 Vol.7 N.9 September 6, 1999

Article

A New Attitude Towards Money Management - Discusses how Dan will not charge a management or advisory fee. More on Dan's investment philosophy, TOT, background, a special offer, etc.

1999 Vol.7 N.10 October 2, 1999

	Bear Markets Sink in a Chasm of Complacency - Discusses how the market "is losing ground" and is "sinking in a chasm of complacency".
	Wadd'ya Mean, No Infaltion... - Discusses whether inflation is going to be a problem.

1999 Vol.7 N.11 November 1, 1999

Article

Expletive Deleted - Discusses November 1st's telephone hotline message

1999 Vol.7 N.12 December 6, 1999

Questions Answered

	You frequently mention the bearish implications of negative breadth readings in your daily hotline. I don't understand why it should be bearish. Why should I care if 400 of the 500 S&P stocks are going up or if 50 of them are going up, just as long as the index is advancing?
	Just how much of the S&P advance has been the result of a handful of stocks?
	I learned a long time ago that utility stocks are a good harbinger of what the broad market will do. Lately, the utility averages have been acting awful. What significance do you think this has?
	I've heard that there is a downward bias to the [daily] advance/decline line anyway, and so a declining line may not be so bearish after all. Is this correct?
	[One question about breadth which was not asked of me, but which was asked by a client to Ned Davis Research, is the following:] Have there been periods when a long divergent period has been resolved not by a bear market, but by a new bullish up-leg?

2000 Vol.8 N.1 January 3, 2000

Article

The unedited text of Dan's 2000 Barron's article about emotion-based indicators.

2000 Vol.8 N.2&3 February 15, 2000

Questions Answered

	I'm a long term "buy and hold" investor, and I invest about $2500 a month in my pension plan. If you were in my position, what would you be buying?
	The bond market just had one of its most volatile weeks in history. Since there has historically been such a close relationship between what happens in the bond market and what happens in the stock market, how do you think the Treasury's decision to buy back long bonds will impact stocks?
	Something doesn't make sense to me. You've stated on numerous occasions that the main strength behind this bull market has been the automatic investments in 401K plans and the like by ordinary Americans, month after month after month. Mutual fund managers receiving these funds must put them to work because if they don't, but their competitors do, then they will under-perform their competitors and run the risk of losing their jobs. You wrote about this in a TOT a few years ago. I also recently heard on CNBC that the Vanguard Index Fund is now larger than the Magellan Fund, as significant amounts of money flow into "the market" rather than funds where stock selection is still attempted. If this is so, why have we seen such a tremendous divergence between the performance of NASDAQ stocks and the broader market?

2000 Vol.8 N.4 April 5, 2000

Article

	Real Money - Discusses the three month track record of one CTA client's account and the risk factors of trading futures contracts.
	Seasonal Pattern - With a Twist - Discusses a trend that most gains in the stock market occur from November to April and how this affect tech stocks.

2000 Vol.8 N.5 May 1, 2000

Article

	An Old Wrinkle - Discusses flaws in raising margin requirements
	A New Wrinkle - Discusses flaws in Yale Hirsch's "January Barometer"

Questions Answered

The Monday after the April 14 crash, you made some complicated comments on your hotline about how the directional component of the daily model is calculated. Could you repeat those comments?

2000 Vol.8 N.6 June 12, 2000

Article

Summer Rally Nonsense - Discusses how ridiculous the "annual blathering about the "Summer Rally" is, considering that historically, summer is the weakest of the four seasons.

Questions Answered

	Your bond model has been almost continuously neutral since I started subscribing to your service. That doesn't make it a very useful tool. When are you going to stick your neck out a little further with recommendations?
	Your gold model has been bullish for a while, and it hasn't done too well. How can you be bullish when gold keeps going lower and lower and lower?
	What do you make of the volatility that's come into the utility stocks, which used to be so staid?

2000 Vol.8 N.7 July 10, 2000

Article

Real Money - Real Trading - Shows a complete record of every trade in SPX contracts taken for Dan's first client who took up the offer of free account managing for one year.

2000 Vol.8 N.8 August 7, 2000

Questions Answered

	If I understand your two tables from last month [and from above] correctly, you were profitable in S&P futures trading in every one of the seven months of 2000. Is that correct?
	How can that be? The market was up in several months, and you have been very bearish since I first contacted you after reading your January 3, 2000 Barron's article.
	Do you expect these kinds of results to continue at this pace?
	What do you feel about using stop orders during the trading day?
	So recognizing that you have the protection, but also recognizing that in the long run, using stops costs money rather than saves money, it would be beneficial to not use stops anytime it's possible to avoid them. So what can one do to minimize the need to use stops?
	How do you protect positions overnight?
	On the issue of Globex, how do you use it?

2000 Vol.8 N.9 September 5, 2000

Article

	Vote for Gridlock - Discusses statistics supplied by Ned Davis Research which show that having a Democratic President and a Republican Congress is best for the stock market.
	More on Statistics - sort of - Just some misleading statistics about bread.

2000 Vol.8 N.10 October 2, 2000

Article

Good October; Good October! - Discusses how the market has fared in the month of October

Question Answered

Why do you use the S&P 500 cash index as your benchmark instead of the futures? Since you do use the cash index, how should I convert it into futures prices when trading? There have been times when you have made a recommendation to buy or sell on a stop based on the cash index, but when the futures opened in the morning there was a discrepancy of several points; yet you credited your track record as if your cash-based recommendation was executable. Is that fair?

2000 Vol.8 N.11 November 13, 2000

Articles

The Pattern of the 2000-2002 Bear Market - Discusses the pattern of the 2000-2002 bear market.

Questions Answered

	In your January Barron's article, you expressed a belief that there would be a run on the mutual funds. When would you expect this to happen?
	As a follow up, most bear markets have been characterized by massive margin liquidation. How likely is that to play a part in this bear market?
	Don't you think that if things get bad, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates?

2000 Vol.8 N.12 December 4, 2000

Article

Risk - Discusses how to deal with risk in the stock market.

Questions Answered

	I've been impressed with your track record of actual managed money, and I've been considering having you manage some money for me. But I've hesitated because, quite frankly, I think you're dead wrong in your market bearishness. I don't believe we're headed for a serious bear market, and I think the Dow will easily double in the next five years. What would your response be?
	Is the put/call oscillator oscillating or trending down? Contrary indicating or creating a trend line? What else do you see that you can share? I am starting to realize you are absolutely right abut us being in a bear market.

2001 Vol.9 N.1 January 2, 2001

Articles

	Real Money - Real results - Discusses the progress of Dan's first CTA account.
	Dow Jones 10,000 in the Year 2020? - Discusses a chart of the Dow made by Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles, and how, with the current trend, it would not be implausible for the Dow to hit 10,000 in the year 2020.

2001 Vol.9 N.2 February 5, 2001

Articles

Will the Fed's Rate Cuts Boost the Stock Market? - Discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on the stock market when it changes interest rates.

2001 Vol.9 N.3 March 5, 2001

Articles

	Choices - Discusses three "ingredients" to being a good trader.
	On the Wall - Discusses the sign on Dan's wall which asks, "What would you do if you had no position?"
	Yoo Ho, Mr. Greenspan. Oh, Yoo Hoo. - Dan's reply to Greenspan's 2/13/01 testimony to Congress.

2001 Vol.9 N.4 April 2, 2001

Articles

A Day in the Life of a Daytrader - Dan answers reader's questions about what day trading is like.

2001 Vol.9 N.5 May 7, 2001

Articles

An Apology to my "Family" - Discusses why the daily model has been "such an abominable failure over the past three weeks."

2001 Vol.9 N.6 June 4, 2001

Articles

Emotions and Stock Market Profits - Discusses Dan's thoughts on Earl Zazove's philosophy to not have emotions when doing work.

2001 Vol.9 N.7 July 2, 2001

Articles

	Editorial Comment #1 - Dan can forgive the NYSE for the computer glitch, but not for the sloppiness and the cavalier in which the NYSE handled the situation. "Virtually all the decline on June 8 was a result, in my opinion, of the absurd and shameless manner in which the NYSE comported itself."
	Editorial Comment #2 - The CME extended trading hours until 5:05 without giving the public adequate warning, so a sale that should have been at about 1240 ended up settling at 1231.70. "I can think of no excuse that justifies the CME making a change in posture at the very last moment, and it absolutely infuriates me."

Questions Answered

	I read your May 21 article in Barron's with interest... Are you considering that the Fed has been lowering interest rates and in '29 was RAISING interest rates? Don't you think the January 2001 rally counted as a bear market rally that would lead to the bottom of this bear market?
	I would like to know if you address the demographic theory of baby boomers driving the market at all. I had this theory so ingrained in my mind by my broker that I believe that is why I kept my money invested and have lost so much market value. The graph of citizens that age has correlated very closely with the market. Have you seen it?

2001 Vol.9 N.8 August 6, 2001

Articles

Structural Change - Discusses the structural change in the market that occurred in 2001.

2001 Vol.9 N.9 September 4, 2001

Articles

	No New Managed Accounts [ will be accepted] after November - TIG will not accept new clientele after the month of November.
	Do Weak Augusts Lead to Strong Septembers? - Discusses a spreadsheet on te correlation between weak Augusts and strong September from 1952 through 1998.

Question Answered

In your "Summary Outlook" for the Very long term, you state that "whether technology can keep generating gains in worker productivity" will be a significant determinant of the magnitude of the bear market that began last year. As a follower of (and participant in) the high tech industry, I find it difficult to foresee and substantial reduction in either technological innovations or in the productivity gains that such innovations create. How would you respond?

2001 Vol.9 N.10 October 1, 2001

Articles

Us and the Stock Market; That's not bad grammer; it's a different reality - Discusses how similarly people and the stock market act. Like people, the stock market bounces back when a catastrophic event happens (i.e. Kennedy's death, the September 11 attacks, etc.), but when the personally level of involvement is so high, like in the September 11 attacks, optimism is "squashed" for a long time, and the stock market doesn't bounce back all the way.

2001 Vol.9 N.11 December 3, 2001

Questions Answered

	Is this a bull market or a bear market?
	But within each bull market are several mini-bears, and within each bear market are several mini-bulls [Ed.:as the aforementioned January 2001 TOT discussed]. How would you categorize this market from a shorter term perspective?
	How do you trade such a chicken market?
	So you think the September 21st bottom will have to be tested again?
	What do you will happen when we ultimately capture or kill bin Laden?
	Why is what happens in Afghanistan so important to the market? They certainly aren't one of our major trading partners!
	Let's move further ahead. We've now destroyed the Taliban and bin Laden; is it smooth sailing for the market from there?
	Such as... [uncertainty]
	What do you mean?
	What other international political problems do you see facing the market?
	You've made me depressed. Isn't there anything good happening?
	Wrapping it all up, what would you say is the primary political event that will impact the market's future?
	Moving to the economic front...

2002 Vol.10 N.1 January 2, 2002

Questions Answered

	Last month you discussed the political forces facing the market. Let's talk economics this month. What do you consider the most significant economic factor facing the market?
	What about all the liquidity that the Fed's pumped into the economy?
	What about all the economists who are saying the recession will end this quarter?
	However, stock valuations are historically still expensive. Last week's Barron's had a piece on the P/E ratios of previous bear market lows, and they were all in the single digits or just above. Current P/E's are in the 30's. Won't that hold the market back?
	Are you saying that the market's being propped up by liquidity (although that may be discounted) and held back by valuation (although stocks may not be as overprotected as the would be with higher rates)?
	But on the subject of earnings (the "E" in P/E), aren't they going to be lousy for a while?
	There's virtually no inflation in the economy now. How much of a risk to the market do you think a deflationary environment would be?
	What's your feeling about gold?
	So summing it up, how do you feel the economy will impact the stock market in the next year?

2002 Vol.10 N.2 February 4, 2002

Articles

January Barometer - Discusses the S&P 500 Index gains from 1950-2001 and how they indicate what may happen over the balance of the year.

Questions Answered

	In the last issue of TOT, you essentially said that you were bullish on gold because you couldn't see any reason to be bullish on gold. Now I understand the concept of contrary thinking, but that's ridiculous.
	A newsletter writer that I follow recently stated that the Federal Government is actively buying S&P stock index futures in order to prop up against the market, and the failure of the market to respond is proof of how dire the economic situation really is. How would you respond?
	Hedge funds have gotten very large. What impact do you think they're having on the market?

2002 Vol.10 N.3 March 4, 2002

Articles

Profiting on St. Patrick's Day - It's More Than Luck! - Discusses trends in the SPX around St. Patrick's Day.

2002 Vol.10 N.4 April 1, 2002

Articles

The Truth about Volatility and Market Timing - Discusses Larry McMillan's article in the March 31, 2002 issue of The Option Strategist, which is about measuring volatility.

2002 Vol.10 N.5 June 17, 2002

Questions Answered

	I know you wrote an article on market timing for Barron's in 2000 and another one in 2001. How can I get copies of them?
	On your hotline service, you speak of the super long term perspective, the long term model, the short term model, the daily model, and the intraday model. To confuse me even more, in the monthly newsletter, you speak of the very long term, long term, intermediate term, short term, and very short term. What are the distinctions? Why are you trying to confuse me?
	The market seems very oversold to me. Is it time to buy yet?
	I've just graduated college (my father is a subscriber) and I'll soon be getting my first serious job. What one piece of advice would you give me about investing?
	In Memorium: A tribute to Bear Stearns broker, Alan Pailet.

2002 Vol.10 N.6 July 8, 2002

Articles

Charting - Discusses how much weight charting carries in Dan's models.

2002 Vol.10 N.7 October 7, 2002

Questions Answered

	How likely is it that the current trend toward disinflation will turn into actual inflation?
	What would make the consumer pull back from spending if there were ample money and credit available?
	In September, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage delinquencies hit a twenty year high. To my surprise, the market did no respond much that day. Any thoughts?
	June 1's Barron's quotes Bridgewater Associates as saying, "Since the Fed first started easing, stock market prices are down 20%. Normally, 18 months after the Fed relaxes, the market is up 20%. The only time share prices have been down this long after the onset of Fed ease was 1930." Do you think the analogy to 1930 as an implied harbinger to depression is valid?

2002 Vol.10 N.8 November 4, 2002

Articles

	A Steer Market - Discusses why Dan believes we're in a steer market, not a bull market.
	Editorial - Discusses the idea from Thomas Donlan's editorial in October 28's Barron's that "income inequality is... highly desirable."

2002 Vol.10 N.9 December 2, 2002

Questions Answered

	When you trade, how do you treat the profits you've made? Specifically, I want to know if you "play" with "house money" more than with the original capital. * For years, I've done stock market research using the advance/decline ratio as an effective timing tool, but in recent years I've been getting a lot of incorrect signals. Do you know why?
	Since reading your December 1974 Barron's article about how the Short Term Trading Index (TRIN or ARMS) can be used for market timing purposes, I've been disappointed that this indicator has been less reliable than in the past. What are your thoughts about this?

2003 Vol.11 N.1 January 13, 2003

Questions Answered

	During the best bull markets, non-dividend paying stocks usually do better than the dividend payers. Yet if President Bush's proposal to end the double taxation of dividends is approved, I would think the blue chips would do better. Would you agree?
	In the January 2002 Turov on Timing you turned very bullish on gold. Fortunately, I followed your recommendation and made a lot of money. What do you charge for a lifetime subscription?! But seriously, what do you think of gold now?
	If you apply DeMark's TK sequential to the weekly charts of the major indexes, we are in a countdown phase and need about three more down weeks to get a low risk entry on the buy side. What's your opinion?
	Appel's Systems & Forecasts (www.Signalert.com) just published a chart (see below) which encourages me to believe that we might have quite a robust bull market over the next several years rather than the "Steer Market" you predicted in November's Turov on Timing. Care to comment?

2003 Vol.11 N.2 February 3, 2003

Articles

	Ominous Omen? - Discusses how market performance in January can forecast market performance for the rest of the year, regarding Januarys in odd-numbered years.
	Commentary on Iraq - Discusses six possibilities about Iraq's WMDs and how the level of uncertainty [that Iraq does or does not have WMD's] is not "good" for the market.

2003 Vol.11 N.3 March 3, 2003

Questions Answered

	In the "Mailbag" section of the January 20 Barron's, a letter to the Editor caught my attention. Do you agree with the writer? He said, "The rarity of four consecutive down-years (only a single occasion) tells us nothing about the likelihood of a fourth in 2003..."
	St. Patrick's Day is coming up in a couple of weeks. I see you quoted in the 2003 Stock Trader's Almanac as having done research regarding St. Patrick's Day. How do I get a copy of that research?
	On Thursday February 27's hotline you said, "TOT short term traders were short for the session. TOT daily traders attempted to go short into strength, but the market simply didn't oblige enough, so we remained on the sidelines." What's the difference between a short term trader and a daily trader?
	Following up on my previous question, what is the difference between these models, and where can I learn more about the short term model?
	I first got involved with the market just about four years ago and have been mutual fund switching, making about two dozen trades a year. How would I have done if I had been following your short term model?
	You're always referring to your models as being "news neutral". What exactly does that mean, and what's its significance?

2003 Vol.11 N.4 March 30, 2003

Articles

Iraq and How it May Impact the Stock Market - Discusses the critical issues about US intervention in Iraq and how it affects the stock market.

2003 Vol.11 N.5 May 5, 2003

Articles

Sell in May and Go Away? - Discusses Yale Hirsch's discovery that "virtually all of the stock market's gains have occurred from the end of October though the end of April..."

2003 Vol.11 N.6 June 2, 2003

Articles

Stock Market Timing with No Risk - Guaranteed! - Discusses a fixed annuity product.

2003 Vol.11 N.7 July 7, 2003

Articles

Managing Real Money - Discusses TIG's two mutual fund switching programs and shows their progress for the 2nd quarter of the year.

2003 Vol.11 N.8 August 4, 2003

Articles

	Bad News for the Stock Market - Discusses Dan's "unconventional" expectations for the housing market and how he thinks it will affect the stock market.
	Managed Mutual Fund Switching Accounts Summary - Discusses the performance of Program A and Program B from end of March 2003 through August 1, 2003.

2003 Vol.11 N.9 September 8, 2003

Questions Answered

	I am a new subscriber, and your recommendations have already made me enough money to pay for your subsription for the next decade. [Ed.: This letter was not a plant!!!] Thanks! But I have one question: [Ed.: As one of several examples from the subscriber's letter] I went short early in the morning on July 29, and when the Conference Board numbers were released a few minutes afterwards, the market tanked. How can I really know whether my profit that day was because of the Conference Board numbers or because your daily model was bearish? It would certainly seem that the numbers had a lot to do with it.
	I've been a subscriber for some time, trading the SPYders based on your recommendations. I've been pleased when sometimes we just miss getting stopped out and displeased when just barely get stopped out. Hoping you won't take offense at the question, just how much of your track record success is because of luck?
	I subscribe to several stock market newsletters, so I can learn more about the market but I have my money managed by several brokers. One day last week, one of these brokers sold some SPYders near the close of trading and then repurchased them a quarter point higher early the following morning. Do you think he's churning my account just to make commissions?

2003-10 special

Articles

	Managed Mutual Fund Switching Accounts Summary - Discusses the performance of Program A and Program B from end of March 2003 through October 3, 2003.
	The Purpose of the Turov Investment Group - Discusses the purpose of TIG.

2003 Vol.11 N.10 October 6, 2003

Articles

	Managed Mutual Fund Switching Accounts Summary - Discusses the performance of Program A and Program B from end of March 2003 through October 3, 2003.
	Two Anniversaries - Notes the 10th anniversary of TOT and Yale Hirsch's 80th birthday.
	The Ornery October Octopus - Discusses how volatile October is.

Question Answered

You mentioned [in one of your daily emails] that the professionals were selling the rally, intraday. Where can we find these statistics on what the professionals are doing during the day?

2003-11 special

Articles

	Managed Mutual Fund Switching Accounts Summary - Discusses the performance of Program A and Program B from end of March 2003 through October 31, 2003.
	The Purpose of the Turov Investment Group - Discusses the purpose of TIG.

2003 Vol.11 N.11 November 3, 2003

Articles

Managed Mutual Fund Switching Accounts Summary - Discusses the performance of Program A and Program B from end of March 2003 through October 31, 2003.

Questions Answered

	Your mutual fund switching Program B results are very impressive. However, can you tell me how volatile the program is?
	I know that your service does not include giving personal advice. However, you are the most experienced trader I know. I have had a horrid time this year even though I negotiated last year very well. I am finding myself overtrading, unable to hold onto winners and susceptible to market induced emotion. Some of this may be due to personal circumstances such as moving houses and the birth of my triplets! I am taking a week off trading completely to calm down and regain my perspective. I wonder whether you would be kind enough to add some wisdom to my current circumstance.
	How significant do you personally regard it that we're entering into the "November-April favorable season"?

2003 Vol.11 N.12 December 6, 2003

Articles

Urgent and Important: Please Read Immediately! - Discusses possible partnership with hedge fund manager.

Questions Answered

The biggest profit I ever made in the stock market was, to tell the truth, pure luck. I bought a large quantity of call options with the intention of flipping them out the next day. As luck would have it, I was in a car crash the following morning on the way to work and spent the next two months in the hospital. By the time I was released, the options, which had been the furthest thing from my mind during my life or death ordeal, had gone up in value a hundred fold. So I'm keenly aware of what a lucky guy I am - both to have survived the car crash and to have made a fortune. I've now subscribed to your newsletter for the past three months and am delighted with the returns on the relatively small amount of money that I've invested in your recommendations. Before investing a larger portion of my assets though, I was wondering if there is anything you might say that would convince me that your recent performance is not just luck?

You have said several times over the years that the best traders have humility. What is your basis for this belief?

2004 Vol.12 N.1 January 5, 2004

Articles

Luck - Discusses how luck, in the long term, is randomly distributed, but, in the short term, does not seem like it is, and how investors should deal with this dichotomy.

2004 Vol.12 N.2 February 2, 2004

Articles

	A Problem for Bush? - Discusses why Bush is more likely to face a more formidable opponent this election year.
	Perpiration - Discusses Thomas Edison's idea that everything he invented was somebody else's idea that they didn't spend enough time working on. Also includes a reprint of Dan's question to Ned Davis and a detailed reply, taken from www.ndr.com.

2004 Vol.12 N.3 March 1, 2004

Articles

Letter from a Reader - A response to pages 1-2 of last month's TOT.

Questions Answered

	Your overall market stance seems rather neutral. Considering that this is an election year, why aren't you more optimistic?
	How serious a threat to the stock market do you consider the recent rise in oil to $36 a barrel?
	Following up on my previous question, it's not only been oil that's been rising in price, but metals and lots of other commodities. When will this cause inflation in the general economy, and how bad would that be for the stock market?
	You've mentioned a few times that your investment sentiment component model is at all time record highs. Yet the market hasn't sold off. Any thoughts on this?
	Sentiment readings, by most measurements, are higher now than when you wrote Sell Signal for Barron's in January 2000, right at the market top. Yet you're far less bearish now than you were then. Why?

2004 Vol.12 N.4 April 5, 2004

Articles

	Happy Anniversary - Discusses one year track record for Program A and Program B.
	Managed Mutual Fund Switching Accounts Summary - Discusses one year's progress for Program A and Program B.
	Win a Free Ticket to Dan Turov's February 2005 Seminar in San Diego! - Discusses Dan's February 2002 Seminar and how to get free tickets.
	Time Frames - Discusses the proper time frame for investing.
	Urgent and Important (uh, never mind) - Discusses why the partnership with the hedge fund manager has been called off.

2004 Vol.12 N.5 May 3, 2004

Articles

	Stop Orders - Discusses stop orders and how to use them.
	How to Get $100,000 of Life Insurance or MORE - Absolutely FREE - Discusses why Dan is a licensed life insurance agent and how to get a new life insurance policy with Dan.

2004 Vol.12 N.6 June 7, 2004

Articles

Autonomy - Discusses the "game" of the stock market.

2004 Vol.12 N.7 July 6, 2004

Articles

	International Market Timing - Discusses how to time your purchases so that you may have a portfolio of quality stocks from countries around the world.
	Media Statistics - Discusses an article from March 25 on KGTV, and how easy it is to "take media at face value" and not acknowledge a journalist's ignorance regarding statistics.

2004 Vol.12 N.8 August 2, 2004

Articles

Home Run Baker - Answers a question that many subscribers have been asking ("Dan, when are we going to start making the big bucks that we made last year?")

2004 Vol.12 N.9 September 13, 2004

Articles

	Politics and the Stock Market -- Short Term - Discusses why the market has been rising and falling along with the Republican President's fortunes.
	Politics and the Stock Market - Long Term - Discusses what might happen in the next four years (housing market collapse? etc.)

2004 Vol.12 N.10 October 4, 2004

Questions Answered

	If you're so bearish on real estate, have you sold your own house? Are you renting now?
	I'm a realtor and I can't believe that you're so bearish on housing! People are tripping over themselves to buy houses. What's going to change?
	The economy is awash in liquidity. I could refinance my home tomorrow and take another $50,000 out. Where do you see a decline in the availability of funds coming from?
	Do you think that the Federal Reserve's interest in raising policies will cause mortgage rates to go up high enough to cut off demand?
	So what do you think the catalyst will be?
	So what are people going to do? Rent?
	I agree with your [September] article, Dan, but I think you omitted something important. My property taxes are increasing, and they're now almost as high as the interest on my mortgage. If we have a recession next year or the year after, it won't only hurt federal tax revenues but local tax revenues also. And I fear that most of the local politicians won't have any qualms about soaking real-estate-rch investors. Don't you agree that this is a big part of the risk also?
	But if people can't afford their house, will they be able to afford to rent?
	Do you think the recent Florida hurricanes will have any impact?

2004 Vol.12 N.11 November 1, 2004

Articles

Perspicacious Profundity - A reprint of a questionnaire from the Chairman of an investment management committee wanting additional information about TIG.

2004 Vol.12 N.12 December 14, 2004

Articles

	Structural Change - Discusses a strutural change that occurred in the market.
	A New Trading Program; No fee charged unless the performance goal is met! - Discusses a new TIG Program C.
	Not a Primary Bull Market - Discusses a chart from www.chartofthe1day.com which shows that the bull market has been a mere "blip" in the major bear market.

2004 Special Report Spring 2004

Articles

	Time Frames - A reprint from April 2004 TOT.
	Win a Free Ticket to Dan Turov's February 2005 Seminar in San Diego! - A reprint from April 2004 TOT.

Questions Answered

The biggest profit I ever made in the stock market was, to tell the truth, pure luck. I bought a large quantity of call options with the intention of flipping them out the next day. As luck would have it, I was in a car crash the following morning on the way to work and spent the next two months in the hospital. By the time I was released, the options, which had been the furthest thing from my mind during my life or death ordeal, had gone up in value a hundred fold. So I'm keenly aware of what a lucky guy I am - both to have survived the car crash and to have made a fortune. I've now subscribed to your newsletter for the past three months and am delighted with the returns on the relatively small amount that I've invested in your recommendations. Before investing a larger portion of my assets though, I was wondering if there is anything you might say that would convince me that your recent performance is not just luck?

You have said several times over the years that the best traders have humility. What is your basis for this belief?

2004 Special Report Winter 2004

Articles

	Managing Real Money - Discusses Dan's account management services.
	Managed Mutual Fund Switching Accounts Summary - Discusses the progress of Program A and Program B from 3/31/03 through 12/31/03.

Questions Answered

The biggest profit I ever made in the stock market was, to tell the truth, pure luck. I bought a large quantity of call options with the intention of flipping them out the next day. As luck would have it, I was in a car crash the following morning on the way to work and spent the next two months in the hospital. By the time I was released, the options, which had been the furthest thing from my mind during my life or death ordeal, had gone up in value a hundred fold. So I'm keenly aware of what a lucky guy I am - both to have survived the car crash and to have made a fortune. I've now subscribed to your newsletter for the past three months and am delighted with the returns on the relatively small amount that I've invested in your recommendations. Before investing a larger portion of my assets though, I was wondering if there is anything you might say that would convince me that your recent performance is not just luck?

You have said several times over the years that the best traders have humility. What is your basis for this belief?

2005 Vol.13 N.1 January 3, 2005

Articles

* Head Trip - Discusses the biggest determinant of stock market success.
* Theta Research - Discusses the tables and charts that were prepared by Theta Research for Program A and Program B.

Questions Answered

	How much of an impact do you expect soaring oil prices to have on the stock market in 2005?
	Regarding your bullish bond allocation, while I realize your allocation is based on a complex model, how do you view the risks to bonds from: (a) apparent underreported inflation and the buoyancy of commodities; (b) the slide of the dollar; (c) large projected deficits; (d) apparent waning appetite by major Asian governments for US bonds; (e) apparent large highly leveraged bets by hedge funds and other major players that the short LIBOR/long T-Bond spread "carry trade" will continue to be profitable. I also woner how much room is there for rates to go any lower from current levels.
	Fifth years of decades have done spectacularly well. Shouldn't that give us a bullish 2005?

2005 Vol.13 N.2 February 7, 2005

Articles

	Website! - Discusses TIG's new website and its features.
	Trend Following; Trading on Rumors; Conventional Research - A reprint of an email from Dan's friend, with no comment.
	Top Ten Timers - A reprint from Timer's Digest of the top ten timers.

Questions Answered

	On your daily e-mails, it seems like you're on the sidelines at least a quarter of the time. [Ed.: actually 32.5% over the first 11 year of Turov on Timing]. Why so often? And what's someone like me who likes to trade supposed to do when your daily model is neutral?
	I'm fairly new at market timing, and I've been hearing a lot recently about the risks of being in the market in the first year of a President's term. Just how risky is it?
	I was just catching up on several months' back-reading and come across mention of you in the May 2004 issue of Investment Advisor Magazine. The paragraph that caught my attention [ed.: see page 5 for full article, reprinted with the gracious permission of Investment Advisor Magazine] said, "Californian Attorney General Bil Lockyer... showed grace in fielding some pointed comments from the audience that questioned the wisdom of redemption fees as a solution to the (illegal) market timing problem. Attendee Dan Turov, publisher of the Turov on Timing newsletter, tolder Lockyer that the real problem was one of 'prospectus violations' by the fund companies, not market timing." What exactly did you mean?

2005 Vol.13 N.3 March 7, 2005

Articles

Sinister Synergy - Discusses the combination of two market indicators to make one superb market indicator.

2005 Vol.13 N.4 April 4, 2005

Questions Answered

	How did your managed account programs perform during 2005's first quarter?
	You say that the daily model kept us out yesterday, but you said without the St. Patrick's Day indicator the model would have been very bearish. Sine the market was down yesterday, does it really matter how many times the market has been up on any given holiday?
	Why do you use the S&P 500 cash index as your benchmark instead of the futures? Since you do use the cash index, how should I convert it into futures prices when trading?
	When you recommend, for example, a 400% short position, what exactly does that mean?
	When the market declines after it is already oversold, sometimes the delcines can be dramatic. Do you anticipate such a dramatic decline now? * When the SPX gaps up past the buy stop, do you set the 10 point stop relative to the original buy stop price or do you set it 10 points below the SPX opening price, which would be higher?
	[Two questions from separate subscribers] How do you suggest that I use your daily TOT to time exchanges at Rydex or Profunds? [and] I never figured out how to use your information to trade "end of day" pricing of mutual funds. Can you offer suggestions since you are running money yourself in mutual funds?

2005 Vol.13 N.6 June 6, 2005

Articles

	Website! - Discusses TIG's new website and its features.
	An analysis of Alan Greenspan’s recent comments.
	Questions Answered
	How consistent has Program A performance been?
	How do you “convert” cash based recommendations into the futures market?
	What do you think of a “hold” recommendation on a position?
	What is the correlation between your managed programs and the recommendations provided in your daily Turov on Timing?
	What do you think about the low level of specialist short selling?
	How do you see the market right now?

2005 Vol.13 N.7 August 7, 2005

Articles

	Announcement of January 2006 seminar.
	Guest Commentary.
	Two Steps Forward, One Step Back – The market and daily model adjustments.

2005 Vol.13 N.8 September 6, 2005

Articles

	Learning vs. Thinking – a critical discussion of a critical concept.
	Diamonds – The media, markets’ reaction to the media, the daily model.

2005 Vol.13 N.9 October 3, 2005

Articles

	October – a tricky month.
	Evaluation of Daily Model performance.

Questions Answered

	I’m a new subscriber. What should I expect from both the daily email service and the monthly editions?
	I see that you’re often fond of short selling. Are you a perennial bear?
	I have a question following up last month’s reference to the beginning of time… o What have been the biggest one-day losses in Program B?
	What’s the purpose of your “plausibility” criteria for inclusion into your daily model?

2005 Vol.13 N.10 November 7, 2005

Articles

Preparedness – preparing for the unexpected in the market.

Questions Answered

	When you issue a hotline recommendation to add or change a position “as we approach the close,” just how close to the close should we wait before making a decision if it’s a close call?
	When you state the model is bullish or bearish, just exactly what time frame are you referring to?
	Although you give us stops, you do not tell us if the model would be different based on a strong or a weak opening…. Can you comment further on this? o How can I use your daily model for mutual fund switching?
	Over the past two years that you have managed my Rydex account, the results have been clearly positive although the positively has come in spurts. Can you explain why?
	You are managing several very different types of instruments including futures, Rydex switch accounts, and options. How do you switch gears from one to the other?
	Why did you miss the recent rally?
	I’m confused by what you mean by your percentage recommendations which seem to range from 100% to 500%. What action should I take based on such recommendations?
	I just read your Turov on Options booklet, and I would like you to manage an account for me. How do I proceed?

2005 Vol.13 N.11 December 5, 2005

Articles

o Guest Commentary from Peter Eliades

Questions Answered

	How do your short term and long term models influence the daily model?
	I’m impressed by the recent strength in the market. Just how typical is this type of raw power advance?
	It seems to me that the economy is a lot harder to figure out than it used to be. Would you agree? And does this affect your market timing tools?
	In your “Summary Outlook” you continually mention “Russia falling to fascism” as a potential long term risk. How likely is this, in reality?
	Why was November’s TOT performance so awful?

2006 Vol.14 N.1 February 6, 2006

Articles

	Is 12% Per Annum with Zero Stock Market Exposure Possible?
	Quantifying Skill vs. Luck in the Stock Market
	Written Testimonials from my January Seminar
	Iraq and the Stock Market
	Has it Really Been a Bull Market?
	Previous Barron’s Articles

2006 Vol.14 N.2 March 6, 2006

Questions Answered

	How can you determine if your stock market timing success is random or not?
	Why do you use the S&P 500 cash index as your benchmark rather than the futures?
	How should I convert your cash index to futures trading?
	How can I calculate futures’ fair value?
	I’m confused by what you mean by your percentage recommendations; what action should I take based on such recommendations?
	Do you subscribe to the theory that bear market rallies usually top out at 5/8ths of the previous low? And, if so, is that about where we are now?

2006 Vol.14 N.3 April 3, 2006

Articles

	First Monday in April – Interesting trading patterns on the first Monday of April.
	Sentiment and Money – Sentiment, monetary, and momentum indicators. Questions Answered
	I recently came across the following article (by Brett N. Steenbarger) titled, “Why it’s Been so Hard to Make Money in the S&P 500.” What do you think about it?
	Since the future of long term interest rates is very much tied into what the stock market might do, what’s your opinion about the long bond?
	What’s your opinion of gold?

2006 Vol.14 N.4 May 1, 2006

Article

Real Estate and the Stock Market Revisited

2006 Vol.14 N.5 June 5, 2006

Articles

Summary Outlook

2006 Vol.14 N.6 June 19, 2006

Article

Eureka? – A detailed discussion of Programs D and E.

2006 Vol.14 N.7 July 3, 2006

Articles

	101 Wealth Building Secrets You Can Use Immediately to Beat the Stock Market.
	Programs A and B Updated Performance Results.
	Nine to One – When the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume is 9:1 or higher
	Guest Commentary – Randall Forsyth

2006 Vol.14 N.8 August 7, 2006

Articles

A Reader’s Question: A Really Important One – News and the Stock Market

2006 Vol.14 N.9 September 4, 2006

Articles

	Turov to Bernanke: Do You Really Believe the Crap You’re Shoveling?
	Seasonality
	Guest Commentaries (3 of them)
	What Every TOT Reader Should Understand About the Daily E-mails – 5 pages of Q and A’s

2006 Vol.14 N.10 October 2, 2006

Articles

	October – The inverse relationship between September and October
	And on the Subject of Nasty – More on the real estate issue
	Evaluation of Daily Model performance.

Questions Answered

Price/earnings multiples are quite reasonable; why the bearishness?

2006 Vol.14 N.11 November 6, 2006

Articles

	Investigating the difference in DJII performance during the traditionally Best Six Months (May through October) depending on the a) whether the preceding Worst Six Months (April through September) had advanced or declined and b) in which year of the election cycle we were.
	What Every TOT Reader Should Understand About the Daily E-mails – 5 pages of Q and A’s

Questions Answered

Sentiment Trader reprinted a just-issued release from the CFTC of the latest Commitments of Traders report, which “showed yet another increase in the extreme – the current $39 billion hedge against a market rally is now the second-largest in history, behind $40 billion on March 6, 2001 (after which the S&P lost 11% over the next month). This has been a yellow flag for a couple of weeks, but that flag is quickly turning bright red.” Do you agree that this is bearish and that this is significant?

2006 Vol.14 N.12 December 4, 2006

Articles

Fourth quarters during mid-term election years and their Decembers: Historically, the first part of December has not been particularly impressive with average returns being flat. It’s really been the Christmas period that has given December its positive reputation. Although the fourth quarter of mid-term election years are traditionally strong, Decembers in mid-term election years have underperformed the other three four-year election cycle.

Two Guest Commentaries on the New High in the Dow Industrials.

Questions Answered

I always find it fascinating when two publications come up with radically different opinions. Within the past week, Ned Davis Research (www.ndr.com) issued a report highly negative on the US Dollar, while the Appel father and son team at Systems & Forecasts (www.signalert.com) say, “a review of the dollar’s long term history suggests that the worst for our currency is already behind us.” Who’s right?

2007 Vol.15 N.1 January 1, 2007

Articles

Apples: An article about how many apples there are in a seed. Effective immediately, the long and short term models are no more. In their place, I have created a new “intermediate term model”. So, as we evaluate performance over the past year – counting the numbers of seeds in the apple, if you will – it’s a paltry number to be sure. But as I look at the number of apples that I believe are in this “new and improved” apple seed, I am extremely encouraged, as I expect the bounty to be, well, bountiful.

What Every TOT Reader Should Understand About the Daily E-mails – 5 pages of Q and A’s

2007 Vol.15 N.2 February 5, 2007

Articles

So far so good: A few reasons why I believe “the super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish”.

2007 Vol.15 N.3 March 5, 2007

Questions Answered

	On the January 8, 2007 Barron’, Alan Abelson reports on a study from Rich Bernstein, Merrill Lynch’s chief investment strategist. That sounds awfully familiar. Didn’t you do a report on the same subject sometime in the past?
	On the subject of “I’ve heard that before,” this past January 19, the press reported that the reason for the upside reversal in the stock market that day was the release of data that “U.S. consumer optimism rose to its highest in three years in early January.” Didn’t you discuss that at your Seminar also?
	Years ago, Monday’s were the weakest day of the week, and Friday’s were the strongest. Yet in recent years, Friday’s have become the weakest. Do you have any opinion as to why?

2007 Vol.15 N.4 April 2, 2007

Guest Commentary

	Larry McMillian: article from Futures Magazine – How important is housing?
	Roger J. Schreiner’s commentary from one of his recent newsletters on the importance of committing to an investment approach.

2007 Vol.15 N.5 May 14, 2007

Articles

Judging by results – or not . . . : Right now, the people who have been long are the ones who have been making the money. The indicators have been saying that riding this Wall Street bull is about as rational as, well, riding a rodeo bull. The results of staying with this bull market to the bitter end may look good right now, but my thinking is that playing the odds properly, analyzing the hands well, and focusing on long term probabilities than short-term adrenaline makes a whole lot more sense.

2007 Vol.15 N.6 June 1, 2007

Articles

A description on how Turov Investment Group Program A achieved a 16.22% after fees average annual return since the Program’s inception 55.0 months ago, while exposing only 19% of capital to stock market risks.

2007 Vol.15 N.8 August 6, 2007

Articles

	Managed accounts update: Program A accounts are up to at least 4.68%, Program B accounts are up at least 16.05%, Program D’s accounts are up at least 16.21% for the even months year-to date after fees.
	Musings on short sale rule change: On July 6, the Fed eliminated the uptick rule for shorting stocks. I categorize this as a “structural change” to the market. ALL indicators that have relied on short sales data or TICK data must be viewed with suspicion until several years of new data can be completed and evaluated.

Guest Commentary

Dr.Irwin Kellner, Chief Economist, MarketWatch (Dow Jones) on Risk of Recessions: If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck. Same goes for the economy.

2007 Vol.15 N.9 September 4, 2007

Articles

Politics and the stock market: We are going into very, very uncertain economic times, and there is not a single statesman running for President, In fact, we haven’t had two statesmen running for President since Eisenhower and Stevenson ran in 1956. But that’s another story. Bottom line: Great uncertainty ahead, great volatility in the stock market. Long term investing is not going to be the way to go; short term, informed trading based on solid market timing techniques will do much better – in my opinion.

2007 Vol.15 N.10 October 1, 2007

Articles

After years of managing non-annuity mutual fund assets using Rydex Funds, I decided to offer a program where dissatisfied variable annuity policy holders could have the benefit of my management experience. With the assistance of Rydex Funds, I searched for an insurance company which was (1) high quality, (2) offered a variable annuity product which allowed the use of the Rydex Funds, and (3) offered more flexibility in the use of Rydex Funds than other insurance companies that met criteria “1” and “2”. I determined that Nationwide Insurance Company best met all three criteria.

I’ll work for free if I can’t “beat” your current annuity’s performance – regardless whether your current annuity is being managed by you or by any other Investment Adviser!

2007 Vol.15 N.11 November 12, 2007

Articles

The Death of Trend-Following: During most of the 20th Century, trend-following was one of the easiest and most successful of al technical strategies. Depending on which time frame one used, and which index one evaluated, if “today” was up, the odds were about 11 to 9 that “tomorrow” would be up, and vice versa. Bt about 20 years ago, this pattern began to gradually erode, until it went flat and then actually reversed itself. And so in the 21st Century, is “today” is up, “tomorrow’” will likely be down, and vice versa. I was curious to see if this pattern existed to every day of the week, and therefore I evaluated the last five years of trading in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The five tables that follow the results of this research. . . The obvious conclusion is that at least with the SPX broad market index, successful short term trend following is a thing of the past.

2007 Vol.15 N.12 December 3, 2007

Articles

November and December: Historically, November is the strongest month of the year. However, this past November was the pits! Ned Davis Research (www.nr.com) in their institutional report today, has an interesting observation: In the past 65 years, November has declined only 23 times. Out of those 23 times, the following December was Up 21 times. So, the “odds are” that this month will be up.

Readers’ Question
Last month’s Turov on Timing showed that good and bad days tend to alternate, yet in the daily advice you typically still advise carrying winning positions into next day. Is this contradictory?

Do you have any thoughts on projecting saving from a devaluing dollar? I can’t tell if I’m jumping on the down dollar train just as it’s about to significantly rebound (given the massive media exposure it’s getting now), but the long term fundamentals look horrible. There is a mutual fund that is designed to protect against a falling dollar. What are your thoughts on taking a 50% position with free cash sitting in saving as a hedge?

2008 Vol.16 N.1 January 1, 2008

Articles

“2008 is likely to be very profitable for bears – 2009 even more so.”
For the record: Turov on Timing: January 1, 2008

Guest Comments

	Roger Schreiner, President of Schreiner Capital Management Inc. (www.selectadvisors.com): A sound investment process is like a good diet; only works if it is applied over a long period of time and if you stick with it. You simply can’t judge results over the short term; there is just too much randomness.
	“Look at al Qaeda’s plans”, said Michael Scheuer, who once led the CIA team devoted to finding al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. “They’re very simply defined in two phases: spread America’s forces and bleed the United states to bankruptcy. I’d argue that America has been under attack successfully every day since 9/11 from that perspective.”

2008 Vol.16 N.2 February 4, 2008

Articles

Probabilities Versus Clairvoyance: It’s frustrating to see exogenous random news mess up our reasoned position. In the long term, however, such exogenous random news events even out, balancing unpleasant surprises with pleasant ones. The problem is, while our brains may perceive the long term, our emotions live almost exclusively in the present moment. The most successful long term investors instruct their brains to tell their emotions to “shut up!“

Paulson vs. Turov: On January 8, Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, said he did not expect housing prices to revert to their mean level after the sharp run-up in recent years. I think he is wrong. I think that not only will they revert to their mean but that they will go below their mean. I think it will take the better half of a decade for it to happen, but when bubbles break, historically they often revert past their mean, and I think this will be no exception.

2008 Vol.16 N.3 March 6, 2008

Articles

	Anablephobia: Anablephobia – the fear of looking up. That’s what the stock market is suffering from at present – and with good reason. For a long time Turov on Timing has been warning about the dangers of the derivatives market and a major collapse in the housing market.
	Taxes: As the two major Democratic candidates fight it out, both promising higher taxes for the “rich” and lower taxes for the “middle class”, I am reminded of the following Tax Parable that made its rounds on the internet a few years ago. It’s worth thinking about: . . .
	Not Even Half Way Through THIS Problem – And many Others Remain: The following chart, prepared by Deutsche Bank in the middle of 2007, speaks for itself.
	Quote From George Soros: The credit crunch is “not a normal crisis but the end of an era”.

2008 Vol.16 N.4 April 1, 2008

Articles

Bullish Now – But Not Sanguine About It: The weight of the evidence is that right now, the market looks like it has made a short term bottom and will likely go higher – in the short term. My Intermediate Term Model is Neutral, but my personal opinion is that we’re going higher – for a while.

Where’s Jimmy When We Need Him? Exceeded only by what might have been if the Nazis had won the World War II, I consider the current economic challenge to America to be the second greatest risk we have faced since the Civil War. The heroic efforts of the Federal Reserve (and they have been impressive), the positive speeches from politicians and the Treasury, and today’s rally notwithstanding, the challenges facing America today re much greater that are usually appreciated.

2008 Vol.16 N.5 May 6, 2008

Articles

	I Love Texas. However. . : The U.S. has had three presidents from Texas: Lyndon Baines Johnson, George H.W. (“Read my lips; no new taxes”) Bush, and George W.Bush. All three of them have been disasters.
	Is the Stock Market Performing Well?: It all depends on how you measure. When measured in US dollars, the Dow currently trades approximately 11% off its all-time record highs. However, when measured with that other world currency (gold), the picture is more bleak.
	If You See the Problem. . . But Don’t See the Solution. . . You’re Not Alone. . .

2008 Vol.16 N.6 June 4, 2008

Articles

How to avoid the wash sales problem.

2008 Vol.16 N.7 July 3, 2008

Articles

A Thought for independence Day: What happened to the 56 men who signed our Declaration of independence?

Readers’ Question

	In your Summary Outlook section, you state, “it may be a decade or longer before we see S&P levels break their 2000 highs (adjusted for inflation)”. Just how much of an impact has inflation had on the value of the S&P 500?
	Notwithstanding the bullish reading of your intermediate model, what do you make of the current SPX level which is nowhere near the levels reached at either the January or March lows? Is the apparent complacency in the face of this decline suggesting longer term risk of substantially lower prices before the final low of this cyclical bear market is reached?
	Your services seems to be geared more toward futures and options traders. Can I use your service to trade the SPY?

2008 Vol.16 N.8 July 28, 2008

Articles

Election 2008: The 2008 election is likely to be the most black and white choice since Herbert Hoover ran against Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, even more so, in my opinion, than the 1976 Jimmy Carter versus Ronald Reagan election. And I’m not merely talking about skin pigmentation, which, hopefully, will be a complete non-issue.

2008 Vol.16 N.9 September 1, 2008

Articles

A Client Appreciation Dinner And You’re Invited: In appreciation of my managed account clients and Turov on Timing subscribers, I will host a private “Client Appreciation Dinner” on Friday evening, November 21 at 6:00. Please join me!

Readers’ Question

Regarding your very long term bearishness (since 2000, as you’ve stated often since 2000), I understand your belief that emotions drive the market (as you described in your 2000 Barron’s article, Sell Signal). I also understand your beliefs regarding the devastation still to be caused by the housing collapse. But can you provide one bit of “big picture” fundamental evidence of what may lie ahead?

2008 Vol.16 N.10 September 1, 2008

Articles

A detailed description of the “Dynamic Program,” Program D. (This issue is FREE.)

2008 Vol.16 N.11 September 1, 2008

Articles

A detailed description of Program E. (This issue is FREE.)

2008 Vol.16 N.12 September 1, 2008

Articles

A detailed description of Program B. (This issue is FREE.)

2008 Vol.16 N.13 September 1, 2008

Articles

A comment regarding Program A. (This issue is FREE.)