Turov on Timing Monthly Issues

Back Issues of monthly Turov on Timing

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1993 Vol.1 N.2 November 1, 1993

Questions Answered

	On your daily model, when you recommend taking a leveraged position, such as 400% long, is it because you are very bullish or is it because you feel the risk is low?
	In the last issue of Turov on Timing you implied that volume was not a significant part of your analysis. Yet on your October 4 hotline, you described some volume criteria as part of determining whether a model would turn a signal. What's the story?
	In relation to that same hotline recommendation, you set your parameters in terms of "NYSE volume excluding the five most active stocks." I've never seen this done before? What is your purpose in doing so?
	I went long this morning on your bullish recommendation, and now I have a big profit. What should I do now?
	When you calculate your gains or losses for a given recommendation, what prices do you use?

1993 Vol.1 N.3 November 22, 1993

Questions Answered

	Your hotline recommendations are sometimes complicated, and I have a hard time following them. What can I do?
	Why don't you offer a fax service?
	I'm interested in generating substantial returns on relatively few trades. I'm seeking only those moves which have a high profitability of being sustained enough to realize profits using out of money puts or calls. I am aware that such moves occur rarely, and I am aware that trading in options is inherently dangerous. How, if at all, can Turov on Timing assist my search for high probability sustained movements in out of the money options (the epitome of a wasting asset) no matter how long I have to wait between trades?
	Has the short term or the long term model been the most profitable?
	In view of your background in options, why don't you make option recommendations?
	Is there any possibility you could give some idea of the next day's market action prior to the current day's close?
	I like to call the hotline every day, but one Friday I was traveling, and I forgot. So I called on Saturday to hear what you said the day before. But instead of hearing Friday's message, I heard a special weekend report. I thought you only recorded messages on business days. What's the story?

1993 Vol.1 N.4 December 13, 1993

Question Answered

I have a multi-part question about your Daily Model Recommendation Performance track record (ed., see page 4), and what if might mean to me as a futures trader: (a) (Updated for the current issue), you have a gain of 24.53 points over a period of ten weeks. If I annualize that over a 52 week period, it would result in a gain of 127.556 points. (Inasmuch as each point equals $500), that would be a total gain of $63,788 over the course of a year. Since you state the maximum leverage you use is 500% (i.e., five contracts), and since the current margin requirement is $9,000 per contract making the total money needed to trade five contracts $45,000, am I correct that trading futures on your recommendations give me a 142% annualized return? (b)How likely is that projected annualization to be achieved? (c)Have you ever traded futures for your own account based on your short term trading model, and how well did you do? (d)Are you currently trading futures? (e)Just how risky would it be to follow such a plan?

1994 Vol.2 N.1 January 3, 1994

Questions Answered

	I don't understand why you assign neutral ratings to your models. If you're as good as you want me to believe you are, why not just state your case - bullish or bearish - and not hide behind a cowardly "neutral"?
	I went short on the Japanese Yen at .93 after reading your Nov. 1 issue. Now the Yen is .89. Should I continue to hold?
	If I cut through all the crap the government requires you to say when you report your track record, and if I understand all of what you call "caveats" in the answer to the first question from the last issue, it seems to me that the 50.02 point gain you reported for the quarter equals a 222% annual gain, based on minimum margin. Is that accurate? [Ed. Note: reader's question updated for current figures]

1994 Vol.2 N.2 January 24, 1994

Article

(Hopefully) Final Commentary on S&P Cash Versus Futures Issue

Questions Answered

	Is there any additional purpose to the "What You Might Have Missed" section?
	On your January 6 hotline, you stated that your program ignores all early morning government business and economic releases when making its daily trading recommendations. Why?"
	You seem to use the word "risk" in a different way than other hotline services. Is my perception accurate?

1994 Vol.2 N.3 February 14, 1994

Article

Smart Idea From Smart Money - Discusses ideas in Smart Money of why market hasn't corrected, and may not decline much this year.

1994 Vol.2 N.4 March 7, 1994

Questions Answered

	How is it possible to sell short a mutual fund?
	I sometimes have trouble conceptualizing the positioning of your stop and limit numbers. Are they the limits of a trend channel, or support and resistance, or what?

1994 Vol.2 N.5 April 4, 1994

Article

For Non-"Black Box" Traders - Real Money Results - Discusses Dan's five week experiment, trading futures contracts using his daily trader recommendations only as "very valued background input" and consequently doubling his initial investment.

Question Answered

The 105.41 point gain you reported for your first half year equals a 187% annualized rate of return, based on minimum margin. Is that accurate?

1994 Vol.2 N.6 May 2, 1994

Articles

Getting Reliable Information - Discusses a "curious development" where on the last two trading days of the month, the June Standard and Poor's futures traded most of the time at a discount which should have triggered "massive sell programs", and a large response to buy, but didn't, and the ignorance of many major brokerage firms to this development.

	Forgotten - But Not For Long - Discusses fear of confrontation in North Korea.
	Homage - Discusses Dan's friendship with Earl Zazove and his respects to Louise Zazove who passed away two weeks before this issue was published.

1994 Vol.2 N.7 June 6, 1994

Questions Answered

	I am disappointed with your hotline. When I used to call, it seemed that I lost money as often as I gained. Yet in your monthly newsletters, you're always crowing about how great you're doing... send me...your excuse.
	You reported in April how using your daily trader recommendations in a non-black box manner, you turned $11,200 into $22,740 in five weeks. How are you doing now?
	You've started having interim updates on your hotline with changes in the long-term and short-term recommendations. I'm a mutual fund switcher and don't want to have to call more than once a day to know what your position is. What's the story?
	I'm an inexperienced trader. Most of your commentary is very sophisticated. What advice can you give me?
	On your hotline, you sometimes say risk is very high, but then you recommend a 400% or 500% position. Why don't you just reduce the size of your recommendation when risk is so high?
	I'm a short term trader who sometimes wants to exit or enter a position before then 9:30 opening of NYSE trading and/or before the release of 8:30 gov't statistics. Is there any way I can do this?

1994 Vol.2 N.8 July 5, 1994

Article

Dow Could Gain Well Over 1000 Points From Its 1994 Low To Its 1995 High - Discusses the four-year "Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle".

1994-09 Vol.2 N.9 August 1, 1994

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses political market commentary; why if Colin Powell announces his candidacy for presidency, "you will see one of the biggest bull markets in your lifetime".

1994 Vol.2 N.10 September 6, 1994

Article

A Down 1995? Historically Unlikely - Discusses why it is historically unlikely that 1995 would be down.

Questions Answered

	How closely related are your timing models to conventional stock market technical analysis?
	How would your daily trader performance look if I limited each trade to 100% [i.e. did not use leverage]?
	You have indicated several times recently that the market could well fall off a cliff, but it has not done so. My rule is when the market won't go down when it "should," it is likely to go up, especially now when the month end rally is usual. Why do you continue to buck the trend?
	Are your models self-correcting?
	If I wanted to try out the system, is there a way you or my broker could take the directions without my being an intermediary?
	Let me compliment you on the clarity and precision of your commentary. Do you have a form that we could use to record the message to make it easier (to follow)?

1994 Vol.2 N.11 October 3, 1994

Article

	First Year Commentary - Evaluation of Turov on Timing's performance in its first year.
	Letter From A Reader - note from Colin Powell in response to August's Turov on Timing.

1994 Vol.2 N.12 November 7, 1994

Questions Answered

	On one of your hotlines a few weeks back, you described two changes in your daily model. Could you repeat what those changes are, please?
	The market seems to be more affected now by news developments than in the past. Yet you seem to ignore the impact of anticipated government economic releases when evaluating your daily predictions. Why?

1994 Vol.2 N.13 December 5, 1994

Article

Decembers in Years Following Weak Novembers - When the period beginning with the end of October and ending with the first Friday in December is down (as it was this year), it is an indication that the bears are in control. "Will they maintain it?"

1995 Vol.3 N.1 January 3, 1995

Articles

Januarys and the Year After Weak Novembers - Discusses what happens following "weak Novembers" in the new year.

Questions Answered

Sell stops should be placed below round numbers, and buy stops should be placed above round numbers, since orders rend to accumulate and on the books at round numbers. What is your response?

I've noticed that your daily recommendations, overall, have done far better when the market's declined than when it's advanced. So, even though I'm a long-term investor, I'm considering setting up a separate index futures account to follow your daily recommendations. That way, since you seem to break even when the market advances, and you seem to make money when it declines, the futures portfolio will hedge my long term investment account if the market declines, but won't hurt me if the market advances. Does this make sense?

1995 Vol.3 N.2 February 6, 1995

Article

Historically, The Odds Favor More Advances - Discusses how the historical evidence for a continued advance is strong, but less compelling than was the case for a strong December and January.

Question Answered

You had a complicated explanation on your hotline of how there could be selling pressure on a day when the market advances. Please repeat your commentary in writing so I can review it.

1995 Vol.3 N.3 March 6, 1995

Article

Affirmative Action and the Stock Market - Discusses the abuse of Affirmative Action by minorities who feel that their abuse of Affirmative Action initiatives is not wrong, but that they are "entitled" to them. Also discusses the effects on the stock market if the Republican or Democratic party were to run the White House.

Question Answered

Why have you cut back intraday commentaries so drastically?

1995 Vol.3 N.4 April 3, 1995

Article

First half of April Outperforms Second Half - Discusses how the stock market performs around tax time.

Questions Answered

	Concerning February 27: I did not go short on the opening because of the lower opening [in futures] but did go long after your 12:45 call. I was stopped out on 3 contracts, down 2 points as per your instructions. Your hotline today indicated a cumulative gain of 251.58 vs. 252.54 yesterday, a minor loss. Did I do something wrong, or is your arithmetic off?
	I must compliment you on the clarity of your recommendations and on the accuracy of your performance reporting. But since my broker won't take responsibility for following your SPX stops, I base my stops on the same point change from my futures execution. So, instead of having a loss on the day like you did, I had a good profit. I think you would do better if you used the futures instead.

1995-05 Vol.3 N.5 May 1, 1995

Articles

	Market Commentary #1 - Discusses mid-year performance following advancing New Year to April periods.
	Market Commentary #2 - Discusses a rare event when the first of the month has five advancing sessions (Monday through Friday)

1995 Vol.3 N.6 June 5, 1995

Article

Worried About Low Dividend Yields? - Discusses how many investors have been avoiding stocks in recent months because of the low level of dividend yields and tries to explain why stock yields have been declining.

Questions Answered

	Your hotline recommendations frequently are worded with a "whichever comes first" option. Since these "one or the other" bands [known in futures trading as "OCO", meaning one cancels the other] usually has one side close to the prior day's close, wouldn't your performance improve by simplifying such recommendations to straight market orders?
	Your last month's commentary was interesting, and I did some additional research on the subject. What I discovered was that when the early part of the year was very strong, such as this year has been, the balance of the year has been disappointing.

1995 Vol.3 N.7 July 10, 1995

Article

The Secret Behind the TOT System - Discusses how Dan uses meditation as a tool to improve his intuition and better stock market performance.

1995-08 Vol.3 N.8 August 7, 1995

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses a different interpretation of the mid-year performance following advancing New Year to April periods.

1995 Vol.3 N.9 September 5, 1995

Questions Answered

	What should I do when there's a problem with the Teleshare hotline number?
	I would like to get a better understanding of the background. Nueral network? How often do you adjust? Other technologies? What are the results for other time periods?
	I have been disturbed this year by all the violence and anger and hatred I see in America, from the Oklahoma bombing to the racism of the O.J. Simpson trial. Do you think that this trend towards mankind's baser instincts will somehow affect the psychology of the stock market, and if so, how?
	This market has been held up by the strength in a single group, the technology stocks. Don't you feel that the recent heavy profit taking in Intel, Microsoft, IBM, etc. signals the end of this bull market?

1995-10 Vol.3 N.10 October 2, 1995

Article

Evaluation of Daily Model Performance - Discusses the complete track record of TOT daily recommendations since inception.

1995 Vol.3 N.11 November 6, 1995

Article

Coming Capital Gains Tax Cut May Not Be Good News - Discusses how a capital gains tax cut has, in the past, and, may, in the future, adversely affect the stock market.

Question Answered

I just re-read the Premier Issue [October 1, 1993] of TOT, including your comments about the differences between a theoretical track record and actual hands-on account management. I was wondering if you have any additional thoughts on the subject, now that you've been publishing for over two years.

1995 Vol.3 N.12 December 4, 1995

Questions Answered

I congratulate you on a job well done today (November 8). Your recommended 500% long position hit the bull's eye, as the DJIA and S&P rose to record levels. I wish that you would apply your short term model to catch 2- to 4-week intermediate swings in the market. As good as your daily model is, don't you feel it would be further enhanced by incorporating the pre-opening action of the bond market, including its response to any 8:30AM economic reports?

I would appreciate your comment on using your daily recommendations for mutual fund switching. Ideas on buying Nova and Ursa thirty minutes before market closes? When your daily reading is bullish, should I buy Nova on the close, when bearish buy Ursa, when neutral move to cash, the following day?

1996 Vol.4 N.1 January 8, 1996

Article

Life Insurance at Zero Cost (Or Even Less) - Discusses a strategy for getting life insurance at zero effective cost, or less.

Question Answered

On your January 2 hotline message you said that almost all of December 29's market advance "took place near the close as institutional investors placed market on close buy orders to increase the value of their existing portfolios." How do market on close orders do anything important for a huge mutual fund's portfolio value?

1996 Vol.4 N.2 February 5, 1996

Article

Mercurial Mondays - Discusses a theory as to why the long-established trend of Monday being the weakest acting day of the week has been reversed.

Question Answered

Sometimes its confusing to know whom to believe. Two advisors contradict each other. Both arguments make sense, but both can't be right. How do you handle this dilemma when analyzing the market?

1996 Vol.4 N.3 March 5, 1996

Question Answered

How does your system handle gap openings? Am I supposed to go along with your recommendation? Do gap openings increase the risk of the trade?

1996 Vol.4 N.4 April 1, 1996

Question Answered

During (late March), there were five consecutive days of daily model bullish readings. yet the market went nowhere. Is that a negative indicator in and of itself?

1996 Vol.4 N.5 May 6, 1996

Questions Answered

	You sometimes advise buying or selling "on the close." Does that mean 4:00 or 4:15?
	[I recently received a FAX from The Hirsch Organization office, containing a copy of a recent brokerage house's technical market commentary, along with a note, asking me], "Do you want to continue receiving these?"
	On May 2, I tried for hours to reach the 800 number but constantly got a busy. What happened? What can I do?

1996 Vol.4 N.6 June 3, 1996

Article

On the Other Hand... No Losses in Last 7 Months of Election Years - Discusses a trend in which election years are usually "up years", and why.

1996 Vol.4 N.7 July 8, 1996

Article

A Summer Rally? - Disproves the idea that the market has its biggest rallies during the summer.

1996-08 Vol.4 N.8 August 5, 1996

Article

Market Commentary – comments and excerpts from Larry McMillan’s lawst issue of The Option Strategist.

1996-09 Vol.4 N.9 September 6, 1996

Articles

	Market Commentary #1 - Discusses how most managers will try to minimize risk and not maximize profits.
	Market Commentary #2 - Discusses what Dan meant by saying that "the strength in the Dow is a smokescreen."

1996 Vol.4 N.10 October 7, 1996

Article

FREE Management Service Offered - Discusses an opportunity for one subscriber to have his/her account managed by Dan for free, with no management fee of any kind.

1996-11 Vol.4 N.11 November 4, 1996

Article

* Market Commentary - Discusses some excerpts from the new 1997 Stock Traders Almanac.

1996-12 Vol.4 N.12 December 2, 1996

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses what a stock stands for, in a time when it is easy to lose sight of what a "stock" really is.

1997 Vol.5 N.1 January 6, 1997

Article

The Logic of Market Logic - A reprint from the December 6 issue of Market Logic which discusses the Super Bull Runs of past century.

1997 Vol.5 N.2 February 3, 1997

Article

More Mercurial Monday Musings - Discusses the reversal of a trend where Mondays were the strongest day of the week back to the weakest day of the week.

Question Answered

Right after [Federal Reserve Chairman...] Greenspan's speech, you had a lengthy speech of your own on the hotline. It was interesting, and I'd like to listen to your comments again. Could you [reprint them]?

1997 Vol.5 N.3 March 3, 1997

Article

Profiting on St. Patrick's Day - It's More Than Luck! - Discusses how the market performs on St. Patrick's Day.

1997 Vol.5 N.4 April 7, 1997

Article

Is Market Timing Necessary Anymore? "When a stock is cheap, buy it. When it goes up, sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it!" - Discusses annuities which allow you to achieve the joy of stock market profits and avoid the agony of losses.

Questions Answered

	Instead of annuitizing it at the end of seven years, can I take it as a lump sum?
	How can I get immediate cash if I need it?
	Let's say the market tanks, and I want to average down, using my account value as collateral. Can I?
	That implies that if interest rates go down and the stock market goes up, I'll make more than the 46% guarantee because of the SPX bonus portion, but if interest rates go up and the stock market goes down, I'll make more than the 46% guarantee because of those higher rates. Is that correct?
	I understand that within an annuity, all gains accumulate tax free until they are withdrawn. Are there any other tax factors I should know?
	Is this the only index annuity there is? In the first table, if the market doubles from $100,000 to $200,000, I'll have a $100,000 gain on which I'll have to pay 28% taxes. That will leave me with only $172,000. Even without the sophisticated analysis of your third table, that $172,000 is exactly what I'd receive from your annuity. Why didn't you stress this?

1997 Vol.5 N.5 May 5, 1997

Questions Answered

	I found last month's index annuity discussion fascinating, and I have one question. I'm 37 years old and would like to have an idea what this annuity would do for me if I were to buy it and hold it [for 28 years] until I'm 65. As a way of projecting what the future might do I'd like to see how I would have fared had I bought this annuity 28 years ago and held it to the present. Can you do that?
	Why did you write the article on the index annuity? What's your point?
	The index annuity you discussed has only a 50% participation rate. I think I did much better buying one with an 82% participation rate. Do you agree?

1997 Vol.5 N.6 June 2, 1997

Questions Answered

	On your hotline, over the past month, you've made some frankly amazing intraday calls. Yet you steadfastly refuse to offer an intraday hotline service. Why?
	Do you consider it a failure of your daily model when the signal is neutral and then the market has a big move, either up or down?
	Is there any relationship between the election cycle and your models?

1997 Vol.5 N.7 July 7, 1997

Questions Answered

	I've really enjoyed your discussion of index annuities in [the April and May issues of] TOT. Are you aware that there's a new index annuity on the market that's even better than the one you wrote about?
	How in the world did you get involved in index annuities?
	You have not listed the name of this or any other index annuity in TOT, and when I called you, you were reluctant to part with this information. Why?

1997 Vol.5 N.8 August 4, 1997

Questions Answered

	On the hotline, when you say, "if the SPX is closing up on the day..." do you mean "if the SPX is rallying and higher than it was earlier in the day," or do you mean "if the SPX is closing higher than it closed yesterday"?
	You've put together a superb track record, and I've made a lot of money following your recommendations. But how much of your success has been solely because you sometimes have been very highly leveraged long, and this is a great bull market?

1997-09 Vol.5 N.9 September 2, 1997

Article

Market Commentary - Discusses Yale Hirsch's observations about September after an "exuberant" July.

1997-10 Vol.5 N.10 October 13, 1997

Article
* Market Commentary - Discusses robust September's and their effect on the following year.

1997-11 Vol.5 N.11 November 3, 1997

Article

Market Commentary - Dan makes two points: (1) "Conventional Wisdom" is an Oxymoron; and (2) Ignorance is Not Knowing; Stupidity is Not Admitting Ignorance.

1997 Vol.5 N.12 December 1, 1997

Questions Answered

	I was surprised that you were so bullish the Monday before Thanksgiving. Over that weekend, Yamaichi Securities went bankrupt and although Tokyo was closed, the South Korean market was down over 7% and European markets got hammered. It was pretty obvious that the US market was going to open lower. Why were you so bullish in that environment?
	I'm confused how you could switch from being so bullish at the beginning of Thanksgiving week to being so bearish at the end of the week. The market advanced, as you predicted, so why the bearskin?
	This is not really a question, but a comment. I chuckled at your comment in the last TOT, "Conventional wisdom is an oxymoron". How true. It inspired me to pull out an old issue [ed.:June 1996] of [Hirsch Organization publication] Higher Returns. I think of it every time I listen to the morons on TV who always have a glib answer to every question.

1998-01 Vol.6 N.1 January 5, 1998

Article

Market Commentary: January - Discusses the years in which January does not run neck and neck with December as the strongest month of the year.

1998 Vol.6 N.2 February 2, 1998

Article

Is Caesar as "Pure as Caesar's Wife"? - And Does it Matter to the Stock Market? - What could marital fidelity possibly have to do with gross commission production? What does that have to do with the stock market?

1998 Vol.6. N.3 March 9, 1998

Article

The Worst Investment Idea in America? - Discusses why Variable Universal Life is a dramatically inferior way to invest in mutual funds.

1998 Vol.6. N.4 April 6, 1998

Question Answered

In one of your hotline messages in December [Ed.: This is the first issue since then that we've had space for questions, but the question is equally valid now as then.] you seemed to imply that that day's short-term model reading was related to the daily model's reading. Is that implication accurate?

1998 Vol.6. N.5 May 11, 1998

Article

Is Market Timing Necessary Anymore? "When a stock is cheap, buy it. When it goes up, sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it." - Discusses how one can use annuities to have profits if the stock market goes up, but have no risk if it goes down.

Questions Answered

	How can I get immediate cash if I need it?
	If the market tanks, and I want to average down, can I use my account value as collateral?
	I understand that within an annuity, all gains accumulate tax free until they are withdrawn. Are there any other tax factors I should know?
	I expect the market to triple in the next seven years [Ed.: That's equivalent to 16.99% per annum.] I'll have a $200,000 gain on which I'll pay 20% taxes. That will leave me with only $260,000. Yet if I put my money in the annuity, I would have $250,000, risklessly. Can it be that good?
	How do I know the guarantees truly are secure?
	Despite all that you've said, I still like the idea of an ILA which will lock in my gains annually. Is there any one which does so without having a cap and without the annual averaging?
	Why hasn't my stock broker ever told me about an ILA?

1998 Vol.6. N.6 June 1, 1998

Articles

	The Case for Being Really Bullish - Discusses reasons for long term bullishness.
	The Case for Being Really Bearish - Discusses reasons for long term bearishness.
	Year 2000 - Thoughts about Y2K.

1998 Vol.6. N.7 July 6, 1998

Article

Which Side Wins? - Discusses why long term bearishness will outlast long term bullishness, analyzing in conjuction Geraldine Weiss's question in June 1998's Investment Quality Trends, "Besides valuation levels, what makes you apprehensive about the stock market?" More commentary on Y2K.

1998 Vol.6. N.8&9 September 8, 1998

Article

Seasonality and Market Timing - Discusses seasonality mutual fund trading strategies.

1998 Vol.6 N.10 October 5, 1998

Question Answered

[On] Monday and Tuesday [September 21 and 22], your comments on the Clinton-Starr matter... seemed to be on one side on the first day and on the other side on the second day. [Also, I'd like to know] was the political situation somehow impacting your interpretation of the model [although] knowing you, such a possibility seems remote, certainly not conscious.

1998 Vol.6 N.11 November 2, 1998

Articles

	What if Free is too Expensive? - Discuses how the market had its second biggest advance ever on October 15 when the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates 45 minutes before the close of trading and how this could be a forecast a world wide depression.
	Potentially Prophetic Prognosticator Predicts Potent Parabolic Pattern's Passage Portends Possibly Painful Petering Picture - A reprint of a graph and commentary from Gerald Appel's October 1 issue of "Systems and Forecasts".

1998 Vol.6 N.12 December 7, 1998

Article

	No Losers in Pre-Presidential Election Years Since WWII - a reprint of an article and graph from the 1999 Stock Trader's Almanac about no down years in the third year of a presidential term.
	Classic Technical Analysis - Shows a table of DJIA returns after upward move through 200 day moving average.
	No-Brainer? Yeah, right! - Discusses November 30's Barron's "Trading Points" column titled "No Brainer: Munis Yielding as Much as Treasuries" and mathematical discrepancies in earnings reports.
	More on the Bond Market - A reason for a possible worldwide bear market.

1999 Vol.7 N.1 January 4, 1999

Article

Sin Verguenza - Discusses thoughts on the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.

Question Answered

I understand that when interest rates are low, bonds and CD's don't have much of a yield advantage over stocks, and that makes them less attractive (and stocks relatively more attractive). But is that the only reason why low interest rates are bullish for stocks?

1999 Vol.7 N.2 February 1, 1999

Article

Murky Moon- Reprints Market Logic's article "Once in a Blue Moon" with Dan's commentary on this Super Bowl Indicator.

Questions Answered

A reader comments that he/she believes that TOT is deceitful, and "venture[s] that is because if [Dan] did [use future prices], and accounting for the carrying costs of the futures and the difference in executable prices, the hotline would have no significant out-performance as is claimed every day on [Dan's] hotline."

1999-03 Vol.7 N.3 March 1, 1999

Article

A reprint of the St. Patrick's Day article introduction with more new information relevant to this coming St. Patrick's Day.

Question Answered

If I want to track futures based on our recommendations, how should I best convert your SPX based stops and limits into futures orders, especially when there are gap openings?

1999 Vol.7 N.4 April 5, 1999

Article

	Will Kosovo Kill the Bull Market? - Discusses how the situation in Yugoslavia (Kosovo) might affect the bull market.
	The Significance of Divergence - Discusses the significant of the divergence between the Standard & Poor's 500 index and the broader market over the past year.

1999 Vol.7 N.5 May 3, 1999

Article

	The Cat in the Tree - an analogy comparing the stock market to a cat in a tree.
	What's With the Daily Model? - Discusses why the model has not been faring well the last five weeks.

1999 Vol.7 N.6 June 7, 1999

Article

	Confidence - Discusses how the economy is completely based on confidence.
	Is it Getting Tougher to Beat the Market? - Discusses Peter Bernstein's analysis of why the stock market has been tougher to beat.

1999 Vol.7 N.7 July 6, 1999

Questions Answered

	What do you feel is the most important attribute a successful trader must have?
	On June 28, it seemed that your stop order was getting hit, but the closing numbers showed that the level was not reached. What happened?

1999 Vol.7 N.8 August 9, 1999

Questions Answered

	On a recent hotline you advised, "Go... 200% long at SPX 1315 stop or SPX 1285 limit, whichever comes first (and you continued, saying), by the way, the unusually wide disparity between the 1315 momentum buy point and the 1285 oscillator buy point is indicative of a market making double major directional shifts, in this case, the long term from bull to bear and the short term from bear to bull." What do you mean by the "disparity between the 1315 momentum buy point and the 1285 oscillator buy point?"
	Despite your bearishness, I want to own stocks. What groups do you like? * Considering that interest rates are more a function of inflation than any other cause, how do you see them trading?
	On a recent hotline you said, "The daily model is neutral today, but if support can hold, it will get stronger throughout the day." This seems to be contradictory to a statement you said some time ago that the daily model is only calculated based on closing prices. What gives?

1999 Vol.7 N.9 September 6, 1999

Article

A New Attitude Towards Money Management - Discusses how Dan will not charge a management or advisory fee. More on Dan's investment philosophy, TOT, background, a special offer, etc.

1999 Vol.7 N.10 October 2, 1999

	Bear Markets Sink in a Chasm of Complacency - Discusses how the market "is losing ground" and is "sinking in a chasm of complacency".
	Wadd'ya Mean, No Infaltion... - Discusses whether inflation is going to be a problem.

1999 Vol.7 N.11 November 1, 1999

Article

Expletive Deleted - Discusses November 1st's telephone hotline message

1999 Vol.7 N.12 December 6, 1999

Questions Answered

	You frequently mention the bearish implications of negative breadth readings in your daily hotline. I don't understand why it should be bearish. Why should I care if 400 of the 500 S&P stocks are going up or if 50 of them are going up, just as long as the index is advancing?
	Just how much of the S&P advance has been the result of a handful of stocks?
	I learned a long time ago that utility stocks are a good harbinger of what the broad market will do. Lately, the utility averages have been acting awful. What significance do you think this has?
	I've heard that there is a downward bias to the [daily] advance/decline line anyway, and so a declining line may not be so bearish after all. Is this correct?
	[One question about breadth which was not asked of me, but which was asked by a client to Ned Davis Research, is the following:] Have there been periods when a long divergent period has been resolved not by a bear market, but by a new bullish up-leg?

2000 Vol.8 N.1 January 3, 2000

Article

The unedited text of Dan's 2000 Barron's article about emotion-based indicators.

2000 Vol.8 N.2&3 February 15, 2000

Questions Answered

	I'm a long term "buy and hold" investor, and I invest about $2500 a month in my pension plan. If you were in my position, what would you be buying?
	The bond market just had one of its most volatile weeks in history. Since there has historically been such a close relationship between what happens in the bond market and what happens in the stock market, how do you think the Treasury's decision to buy back long bonds will impact stocks?