Questions Answered

• On your daily model, when you recommend taking a leveraged position, such as 400% long, is it because you are very bullish or is it because you feel the risk is low?
• In the last issue of Turov on Timing you implied that volume was not a significant part of your analysis. Yet on your October 4 hotline, you described some volume criteria as part of determining whether a model would turn a signal. What’s the story?
• In relation to that same hotline recommendation, you set your parameters in terms of “NYSE volume excluding the five most active stocks.” I’ve never seen this done before? What is your purpose in doing so?
• I went long this morning on your bullish recommendation, and now I have a big profit. What should I do now?
• When you calculate your gains or losses for a given recommendation, what prices do you use?

Questions Answered

• Your hotline recommendations are sometimes complicated, and I have a hard time following them. What can I do?
• Why don’t you offer a fax service?
• I’m interested in generating substantial returns on relatively few trades. I’m seeking only those moves which have a high profitability of being sustained enough to realize profits using out of money puts or calls. I am aware that such moves occur rarely, and I am aware that trading in options is inherently dangerous. How, if at all, can Turov on Timing assist my search for high probability sustained movements in out of the money options (the epitome of a wasting asset) no matter how long I have to wait between trades?
• Has the short term or the long term model been the most profitable?
• In view of your background in options, why don’t you make option recommendations?
• Is there any possibility you could give some idea of the next day’s market action prior to the current day’s close?
• I like to call the hotline every day, but one Friday I was traveling, and I forgot. So I called on Saturday to hear what you said the day before. But instead of hearing Friday’s message, I heard a special weekend report. I thought you only recorded messages on business days. What’s the story?

Question Answered

• I have a multi-part question about your Daily Model Recommendation Performance track record (ed., see page 4), and what if might mean to me as a futures trader: (a) (Updated for the current issue), you have a gain of 24.53 points over a period of ten weeks. If I annualize that over a 52 week period, it would result in a gain of 127.556 points. (Inasmuch as each point equals $500), that would be a total gain of $63,788 over the course of a year. Since you state the maximum leverage you use is 500% (i.e., five contracts), and since the current margin requirement is $9,000 per contract making the total money needed to trade five contracts $45,000, am I correct that trading futures on your recommendations give me a 142% annualized return? (b)How likely is that projected annualization to be achieved? (c)Have you ever traded futures for your own account based on your short term trading model, and how well did you do? (d)Are you currently trading futures? (e)Just how risky would it be to follow such a plan?

Questions Answered

• I don’t understand why you assign neutral ratings to your models. If you’re as good as you want me to believe you are, why not just state your case – bullish or bearish – and not hide behind a cowardly “neutral”?
• I went short on the Japanese Yen at .93 after reading your Nov. 1 issue. Now the Yen is .89. Should I continue to hold?
• If I cut through all the crap the government requires you to say when you report your track record, and if I understand all of what you call “caveats” in the answer to the first question from the last issue, it seems to me that the 50.02 point gain you reported for the quarter equals a 222% annual gain, based on minimum margin. Is that accurate? [Ed. Note: reader's question updated for current figures]

Article

• (Hopefully) Final Commentary on S&P Cash Versus Futures Issue

Questions Answered

• Is there any additional purpose to the “What You Might Have Missed” section?
• On your January 6 hotline, you stated that your program ignores all early morning government business and economic releases when making its daily trading recommendations. Why?”
• You seem to use the word “risk” in a different way than other hotline services. Is my perception accurate?

Article

• Smart Idea From Smart Money – Discusses ideas in Smart Money of why market hasn’t corrected, and may not decline much this year.

Article

• Smart Idea From Smart Money – Discusses ideas in Smart Money of why market hasn’t corrected, and may not decline much this year.

Article

• For Non-”Black Box” Traders – Real Money Results – Discusses Dan’s five week experiment, trading futures contracts using his daily trader recommendations only as “very valued background input” and consequently doubling his initial investment.

Question Answered

• The 105.41 point gain you reported for your first half year equals a 187% annualized rate of return, based on minimum margin. Is that accurate?

Articles

Getting Reliable Information – Discusses a “curious development” where on the last two trading days of the month, the June Standard and Poor’s futures traded most of the time at a discount which should have triggered “massive sell programs”, and a large response to buy, but didn’t, and the ignorance of many major brokerage firms to this development.

• Forgotten – But Not For Long – Discusses fear of confrontation in North Korea.
• Homage – Discusses Dan’s friendship with Earl Zazove and his respects to Louise Zazove who passed away two weeks before this issue was published.

Questions Answered

• I am disappointed with your hotline. When I used to call, it seemed that I lost money as often as I gained. Yet in your monthly newsletters, you’re always crowing about how great you’re doing… send me…your excuse.
• You reported in April how using your daily trader recommendations in a non-black box manner, you turned $11,200 into $22,740 in five weeks. How are you doing now?
• You’ve started having interim updates on your hotline with changes in the long-term and short-term recommendations. I’m a mutual fund switcher and don’t want to have to call more than once a day to know what your position is. What’s the story?
• I’m an inexperienced trader. Most of your commentary is very sophisticated. What advice can you give me?
• On your hotline, you sometimes say risk is very high, but then you recommend a 400% or 500% position. Why don’t you just reduce the size of your recommendation when risk is so high?
• I’m a short term trader who sometimes wants to exit or enter a position before then 9:30 opening of NYSE trading and/or before the release of 8:30 gov’t statistics. Is there any way I can do this?

Article

• Dow Could Gain Well Over 1000 Points From Its 1994 Low To Its 1995 High – Discusses the four-year “Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle”.

Article

• Market Commentary – Discusses political market commentary; why if Colin Powell announces his candidacy for presidency, “you will see one of the biggest bull markets in your lifetime”.

Article

• A Down 1995? Historically Unlikely – Discusses why it is historically unlikely that 1995 would be down.

Questions Answered

• How closely related are your timing models to conventional stock market technical analysis?
• How would your daily trader performance look if I limited each trade to 100% [i.e. did not use leverage]?
• You have indicated several times recently that the market could well fall off a cliff, but it has not done so. My rule is when the market won’t go down when it “should,” it is likely to go up, especially now when the month end rally is usual. Why do you continue to buck the trend?
• Are your models self-correcting?
• If I wanted to try out the system, is there a way you or my broker could take the directions without my being an intermediary?
• Let me compliment you on the clarity and precision of your commentary. Do you have a form that we could use to record the message to make it easier (to follow)?

Articles

• First Year Commentary – Evaluation of Turov on Timing’s performance in its first year.
• Letter From A Reader – note from Colin Powell in response to August’s Turov on Timing.

Questions Answered

• On one of your hotlines a few weeks back, you described two changes in your daily model. Could you repeat what those changes are, please?
• The market seems to be more affected now by news developments than in the past. Yet you seem to ignore the impact of anticipated government economic releases when evaluating your daily predictions. Why?

Article

• Decembers in Years Following Weak Novembers – When the period beginning with the end of October and ending with the first Friday in December is down (as it was this year), it is an indication that the bears are in control. “Will they maintain it?”

Article

• Januarys and the Year After Weak Novembers – Discusses what happens following “weak Novembers” in the new year.

Questions Answered

• Sell stops should be placed below round numbers, and buy stops should be placed above round numbers, since orders rend to accumulate and on the books at round numbers. What is your response?
• I’ve noticed that your daily recommendations, overall, have done far better when the market’s declined than when it’s advanced. So, even though I’m a long-term investor, I’m considering setting up a separate index futures account to follow your daily recommendations. That way, since you seem to break even when the market advances, and you seem to make money when it declines, the futures portfolio will hedge my long term investment account if the market declines, but won’t hurt me if the market advances. Does this make sense?

Article

• Historically, The Odds Favor More Advances – Discusses how the historical evidence for a continued advance is strong, but less compelling than was the case for a strong December and January.

Question Answered

• You had a complicated explanation on your hotline of how there could be selling pressure on a day when the market advances. Please repeat your commentary in writing so I can review it.

Article

• Affirmative Action and the Stock Market – Discusses the abuse of Affirmative Action by minorities who feel that their abuse of Affirmative Action initiatives is not wrong, but that they are “entitled” to them. Also discusses the effects on the stock market if the Republican or Democratic party were to run the White House.

Question Answered

• Why have you cut back intraday commentaries so drastically?

Article

• First half of April Outperforms Second Half – Discusses how the stock market performs around tax time.

Questions Answered

• Concerning February 27: I did not go short on the opening because of the lower opening [in futures] but did go long after your 12:45 call. I was stopped out on 3 contracts, down 2 points as per your instructions. Your hotline today indicated a cumulative gain of 251.58 vs. 252.54 yesterday, a minor loss. Did I do something wrong, or is your arithmetic off?
• I must compliment you on the clarity of your recommendations and on the accuracy of your performance reporting. But since my broker won’t take responsibility for following your SPX stops, I base my stops on the same point change from my futures execution. So, instead of having a loss on the day like you did, I had a good profit. I think you would do better if you used the futures instead.

Articles

• Market Commentary #1 – Discusses mid-year performance following advancing New Year to April periods.
• Market Commentary #2 – Discusses a rare event when the first of the month has five advancing sessions (Monday through Friday)

Article

• Worried About Low Dividend Yields? – Discusses how many investors have been avoiding stocks in recent months because of the low level of dividend yields and tries to explain why stock yields have been declining.

Questions Answered

• Your hotline recommendations frequently are worded with a “whichever comes first” option. Since these “one or the other” bands [known in futures trading as "OCO", meaning one cancels the other] usually has one side close to the prior day’s close, wouldn’t your performance improve by simplifying such recommendations to straight market orders?
• Your last month’s commentary was interesting, and I did some additional research on the subject. What I discovered was that when the early part of the year was very strong, such as this year has been, the balance of the year has been disappointing.

Article

• The Secret Behind the TOT System – Discusses how Dan uses meditation as a tool to improve his intuition and better stock market performance.

Article

• Market Commentary – Discusses a different interpretation of the mid-year performance following advancing New Year to April periods.

Questions Answered

• What should I do when there’s a problem with the Teleshare hotline number?
• I would like to get a better understanding of the background. Nueral network? How often do you adjust? Other technologies? What are the results for other time periods?
• I have been disturbed this year by all the violence and anger and hatred I see in America, from the Oklahoma bombing to the racism of the O.J. Simpson trial. Do you think that this trend towards mankind’s baser instincts will somehow affect the psychology of the stock market, and if so, how?
• This market has been held up by the strength in a single group, the technology stocks. Don’t you feel that the recent heavy profit taking in Intel, Microsoft, IBM, etc. signals the end of this bull market?

Article

• Evaluation of Daily Model Performance – Discusses the complete track record of TOT daily recommendations since inception.

Article

• Coming Capital Gains Tax Cut May Not Be Good News – Discusses how a capital gains tax cut has, in the past, and, may, in the future, adversely affect the stock market.

Question Answered

• I just re-read the Premier Issue [October 1, 1993] of TOT, including your comments about the differences between a theoretical track record and actual hands-on account management. I was wondering if you have any additional thoughts on the subject, now that you’ve been publishing for over two years.

Questions Answered

• I congratulate you on a job well done today (November 8). Your recommended 500% long position hit the bull’s eye, as the DJIA and S&P rose to record levels. I wish that you would apply your short term model to catch 2- to 4-week intermediate swings in the market. As good as your daily model is, don’t you feel it would be further enhanced by incorporating the pre-opening action of the bond market, including its response to any 8:30AM economic reports?
• I would appreciate your comment on using your daily recommendations for mutual fund switching. Ideas on buying Nova and Ursa thirty minutes before market closes? When your daily reading is bullish, should I buy Nova on the close, when bearish buy Ursa, when neutral move to cash, the following day?

Article

• Life Insurance at Zero Cost (Or Even Less) – Discusses a strategy for getting life insurance at zero effective cost, or less.

Question Answered

• On your January 2 hotline message you said that almost all of December 29′s market advance “took place near the close as institutional investors placed market on close buy orders to increase the value of their existing portfolios.” How do market on close orders do anything important for a huge mutual fund’s portfolio value?

Article

• Mercurial Mondays – Discusses a theory as to why the long-established trend of Monday being the weakest acting day of the week has been reversed.

Question Answered

• Sometimes its confusing to know whom to believe. Two advisors contradict each other. Both arguments make sense, but both can’t be right. How do you handle this dilemma when analyzing the market?

Question Answered

• How does your system handle gap openings? Am I supposed to go along with your recommendation? Do gap openings increase the risk of the trade?

Question Answered

• During (late March), there were five consecutive days of daily model bullish readings. yet the market went nowhere. Is that a negative indicator in and of itself?

Questions Answered

• You sometimes advise buying or selling “on the close.” Does that mean 4:00 or 4:15?
• [I recently received a FAX from The Hirsch Organization office, containing a copy of a recent brokerage house's technical market commentary, along with a note, asking me], “Do you want to continue receiving these?”
• On May 2, I tried for hours to reach the 800 number but constantly got a busy. What happened? What can I do?

Article

• On the Other Hand… No Losses in Last 7 Months of Election Years - Discusses a trend in which election years are usually “up years”, and why.

Article

• A Summer Rally? – Disproves the idea that the market has its biggest rallies during the summer.

Article

• Market Commentary – comments and excerpts from Larry McMillan’s lawst issue of The Option Strategist.

Articles

• Market Commentary #1 – Discusses how most managers will try to minimize risk and not maximize profits.
• Market Commentary #2 – Discusses what Dan meant by saying that “the strength in the Dow is a smokescreen.”

Article

• FREE Management Service Offered – Discusses an opportunity for one subscriber to have his/her account managed by Dan for free, with no management fee of any kind.

Article

• Market Commentary – Discusses some excerpts from the new 1997 Stock Traders Almanac.

Article

• Market Commentary – Discusses what a stock stands for, in a time when it is easy to lose sight of what a “stock” really is.

Article

• The Logic of Market Logic – A reprint from the December 6 issue of Market Logic which discusses the Super Bull Runs of past century.

Article

• More Mercurial Monday Musings – Discusses the reversal of a trend where Mondays were the strongest day of the week back to the weakest day of the week.

Question Answered

• Right after [Federal Reserve Chairman...] Greenspan’s speech, you had a lengthy speech of your own on the hotline. It was interesting, and I’d like to listen to your comments again. Could you [reprint them]?

Article

• Profiting on St. Patrick’s Day – It’s More Than Luck! – Discusses how the market performs on St. Patrick’s Day.

Article

• Is Market Timing Necessary Anymore? “When a stock is cheap, buy it. When it goes up, sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it!” – Discusses annuities which allow you to achieve the joy of stock market profits and avoid the agony of losses.

Questions Answered

• Instead of annuitizing it at the end of seven years, can I take it as a lump sum?
• How can I get immediate cash if I need it?
• Let’s say the market tanks, and I want to average down, using my account value as collateral. Can I?
• That implies that if interest rates go down and the stock market goes up, I’ll make more than the 46% guarantee because of the SPX bonus portion, but if interest rates go up and the stock market goes down, I’ll make more than the 46% guarantee because of those higher rates. Is that correct?
• I understand that within an annuity, all gains accumulate tax free until they are withdrawn. Are there any other tax factors I should know?
• Is this the only index annuity there is? In the first table, if the market doubles from $100,000 to $200,000, I’ll have a $100,000 gain on which I’ll have to pay 28% taxes. That will leave me with only $172,000. Even without the sophisticated analysis of your third table, that $172,000 is exactly what I’d receive from your annuity. Why didn’t you stress this?

Questions Answered

• I found last month’s index annuity discussion fascinating, and I have one question. I’m 37 years old and would like to have an idea what this annuity would do for me if I were to buy it and hold it [for 28 years] until I’m 65. As a way of projecting what the future might do I’d like to see how I would have fared had I bought this annuity 28 years ago and held it to the present. Can you do that?
• Why did you write the article on the index annuity? What’s your point?
• The index annuity you discussed has only a 50% participation rate. I think I did much better buying one with an 82% participation rate. Do you agree?

Questions Answered

• On your hotline, over the past month, you’ve made some frankly amazing intraday calls. Yet you steadfastly refuse to offer an intraday hotline service. Why?
• Do you consider it a failure of your daily model when the signal is neutral and then the market has a big move, either up or down?
• Is there any relationship between the election cycle and your models?

Questions Answered

• I’ve really enjoyed your discussion of index annuities in [the April and May issues of] TOT. Are you aware that there’s a new index annuity on the market that’s even better than the one you wrote about?
• How in the world did you get involved in index annuities?
• You have not listed the name of this or any other index annuity in TOT, and when I called you, you were reluctant to part with this information. Why?

Questions Answered

• On the hotline, when you say, “if the SPX is closing up on the day…” do you mean “if the SPX is rallying and higher than it was earlier in the day,” or do you mean “if the SPX is closing higher than it closed yesterday”?
• You’ve put together a superb track record, and I’ve made a lot of money following your recommendations. But how much of your success has been solely because you sometimes have been very highly leveraged long, and this is a great bull market?

Article

• Market Commentary – Discusses Yale Hirsch’s observations about September after an “exuberant” July.

Article

• Market Commentary – Discusses robust September’s and their effect on the following year.